2011 Should Bring Steady Job Growth for Arizona
2011 Should Bring Steady Job Growth for Arizona
The so-called Great Recession is behind us now, but the road to recovery is going to be a steep one, according to University of Arizona's Marshall Vest and Gerald Swanson two well-respected economists who spoke to around 550 members of Tucson's business community at a luncheon at The Westin La Paloma Resort & Spa.
While the state has shown a glimmer of economic development in the first half of the year, the growth significantly slowed in the latter six months, Vest told attendees.
"We've lost a lot of momentum and we've given up some of those gains," Vest stated.
Arizona is faced with more than one issue preventing a quick and full recovery, Vest said. Major problems the state faces are from repercussions resulting from the restricted credit market, such as with homeowners who may be looking to downsize or even relocate for a job, not being able to do so because no one can get approved for a loan to buy their house in a reasonable time period.
The finish to the first-time buyer tax credit has helped to furthered slow house sales. In addition, the state's foreclosure rate isn't improving, Vest told listeners.
While the job market began to show signs of improvement in the start of 2010, the growth rate has since slowed. Manufacturing and commercial construction are showing significant declines, Vest stated.
"This spring it looked like we had reached the bottom and things were going to turn, but in recent months you can see that jobs have turned down once again and have sunk to new lows," Vest said.
Solar and biotech sectors in Tucson have shown promising signs of continued growth and will likely help bring more jobs to the area, Vest implied.
Swanson spoke to luncheon attendees about the economy improving over time. "We may do more harm than good if we try to rush the recovery," Swanson said.
Consumer confidence is remains low, which has corporations attempting to build-up cash in effort to increase their liquidity. This has created another problem for the economic recovery adding to the slow fix, according to Swanson. There may be some good news, and that is many consumers have been paying down credit debt.
Arizona's deficit is yet another major concern for full recovery, and many of the state's leading economists agree upon this point.
The state's deficit is predicted to reach $1.2 billion in 2012, Vest stated. He then told onlookers that the state's main funds, including Medicaid, the prison system, and education, will result in major reductions of funding.
In closing, this too is going to have a significant impact on health-care providers and students, and unless something drastic happens, Arizona resident's standard of living will suffer, Vest said.
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