A Good Horse Racing System for Betting Favorites or Against Them

If you want to make money on a horse racing system

, or at least break even, then you have to be aware of the favorite and its chances of winning. Because the largest amount of money bet on any horse in the race is bet on the favorite, you are always waging a war against that money. In horse racing betting, your money is your weapon. You use it to win more money or you lose it, but either way, you can only win if you have the money to wager and it is your weapon, trust me.

Therefore, knowing the statistical probability of the favorite winning or losing is very important. Here are a few things you can use to follow a system for rating the favorite's chances...

First of all, there are now past performances that tell you the winning percentage for favorites in any type of horse race. They are included on each of the races in the program. They only cost a few dollars per program and you can download them from the internet. They tell you the number of races that have been raced that match those conditions, the average field size, and also what percentage of horses win at odds of less than 5-1, and what percentage win at odds of 5- to 9-1 and then which horses win at 10-1 or more.

You can use this information to size up the favorite and the race and to make adjustments.

The fewer horses in the race, the greater the chances of the favorite winning. So if you are looking at a race and only 25% of favorites win such races with a field size of 10 horses, but today there are only 5 horses in the race, you know the favorite's chances of winning are much greater than 25%. Of course, the opposite would also be true if the field size is much larger than the average.

If you handicap a horse race and find a horse that is going off at 4-1 and you think it can beat the favorite and the favorite has a 25% chance of winning and the winners are just as likely to win at less than 5-1 then you know your horse has a good chance. If the favorite is at even money, then its chances may be better than 25%, but certainly not enough to offset that difference in odds.

1. Always rate the favorite first using the statistics for that race adjusted by field size.

2. Look for horses in an odds range with a high win percent to beat the favorite.

Using the statistics you can now understand when a favorite is at a fair price or over bet.

There are no guarantees, especially in horse racing, so never ever bet more than you can comfortable afford to lose. Betting on horse races is risky.

A Good Horse Racing System for Betting Favorites or Against Them

By: Bill Peterson

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