Aarkstore Enterprise--dairy Investment Research Quarterly Report Proposal

Proposal for Dairy Investment Research Quarterly Report

Table of Contents :

I. Consumer Confidence Index for Dairy Products 7

1. Consumer Confidence Index of Dairy Industry to See a Rally in 2009 after Touching the Bottom 7

2. Research of Dairy Demand . 9

Driving factors behind dairy demand: population, urban per capita disposable income, rural per capita net income and export 9

Per capita disposable income of urban residents: 10.2% growth in Q1 of 2009, the growth continued to slow down 10

Per capita net income of rural residents: 8.6% growth in Q1 of 2009, a big rally . 10

Population: a growth rate of 5 is projected in 2009, with a slowing pace 11

3. Research of the Supply of Dairy Products 11

Driving force of dairy supply: dairy cattle inventory and price ratio between milk and feed 11

Dairy cattle inventory: 12% decline of dairy cattle inventory in Q1 of 2009, and Q2 is foreseen to see steady inventory 12

Price ratio between milk and feed: raw milk price was sluggish from the latter half of 2008, and the price ratio between milk and feed lingered around a low level 13

4. Growth of Dairy Production 14

Liquid milk production: lowest level in Q4 of 2008, 7.1% growth in Q1 of 2009 than Q1 of 2008, bouncing back 14

Output of solid milk: 27% less in Q1 of 2009 over Q1 of 2008, Q3 is foreseen to be steady 14

5. Sales Revenue of Scaled Dairy Companies and Growth 15

Sales revenue: 3.2% more sales revenue in Q1 of 2009 over Q1 of 2008 15

6. Gross Profit Margin of Dairy Products 15

Price changes of fresh milk and powder closely relate to CPI, whereas yogurt price is not much related to CPI. 16

Dairy price: steady in Q4 of 2008, rally in Q1 of 2009 16

7. Total Profit of Dairy Products: Q1 of 2009 Similar as in Same Period 2008 . 17

8. Forecast of Dairy Industry . 18

The per capita dairy consumption of urban residents was 22.26kg in 2008 and 3.04kg for rural residents. 18

The per capita dairy consumption volume in China is much lower than the world average, and the there is a huge market potential in the future 19

Sales revenue in 2009 is hopefully to see 10.6% growth 19

Raw milk supply shall become the bottleneck of dairy industrial development from 2010-2011 19

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by: Aarkstore Enterprise

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