Another Day, Another Dollar
Another Day, Another Dollar
Another Day, Another Dollar
Thanksgiving Day has come and gone, family obligations are met, turkey consumed and now its time to get back to normal eating and drinking. It is good that this holiday only comes but once a year but now we are faced with the next 30 or so days of constant badgering from those who would sell you something, all making outlandish claims about their cars, phones, diamond rings, clothing, whatever. I prefer holidays that last but one day to one day holidays that last for what seems to be forever.
Streaks Go Both Ways
Yesterday, before family arrived and the commotion of the holiday festivities were underway I wrote about poker as a streaky game, about how probabilities are the measuring stick by which poker thrives as a game of skill rather than a game of chance. Of course, I was responding to a couple of days of a rather unlucky string of cards, draws and other events that tended to be on the short end of probability. I suppose one could classify that post as a rant of sorts. I wrote it more as a reminder to myself that going on tilt is an unnecessary and unproductive response to a string of bad luck. Its not that I don't steam when someone hits a miracle one outer on the river to crush by otherwise best hand, I do. I wonder why someone would stick around for a draw that was priced out and, therefore, unprofitable. But my response is not to allow myself the luxury of unproductive tilting. I only allow myself a short space of time in which to get beaten up and then I simply go do other things.
Last night, after the company all left and I did all I could do to help with the dishes and other cleanup, I decided to play some poker. I had not played all day, cooking and other stuff seemed to get in the way. Almost from the start I knew that the poker gods, where ever they might be, were smiling upon me once again. Here is the hand that turned the whole thing around.
99 against AKs
I was playing a micro-stake 5 cent no-limit game. I waited for the big blind to join the action which amounted to waiting out one hand. I looked down at 99. Under the gun raised and the action folded to me. I smooth called. The flop came AK9 rainbow. Please, I thought, please have AK. I checked and UTG bet the pot. I smooth called again after some hesitation. An 8 came on the turn putting a fourth suit on the board along with a possible but unlikely straight draw. I decided to bet out with this entirely meaningless blank mostly to confuse my opponent. I bet half the pot. Without hesitation he raised my bet and I called. Now I put him on a range of hands that included AK, AQ, A8, KQ, K8 or 88. My set is still good. A 3 on the river I was certain missed my opponent and I bet for value a bit under half the pot. My opponent raised all-in and I called. He turned over an AK and I scooped a very nice pot.
Two Responses
My opponent surely went on tilt. He began to rant in the chat box first calling me an idiot for playing the 99. Then he called me a donkey. There were several other responses along these lines but I was not paying much attention because I was counting his chips in my stack. He chipped up and was surely back for revenge. His rants continued through the next several hands when once again we were heads up. This time I had JJ and he had a 76s. He didn't hit on any street whereas I hit a third Jack on the turn. In this hand I had position and he kept betting into me and I kept raising. In the end I took his whole stack again and he left the table.
My response to the initial hand was quite different. I simply moved to the next hand, deciding to play solid, tight-aggressive poker. I chose not to respond to my opponent's rants, his name-calling, or anything else for that matter. I simply played my game. His desire for revenge was apparent and overt. There were several times when he made big raises to get me heads up and I refused to bite with a weak hand. But when the time came and I had a good hand I played that hand fast. He, on the other hand, would have played any two cards to see if he could push me off a hand. That is a big mistake.
Sklansky's First Rule of Poker
Every cent of your long-term profit playing poker comes from exploiting your opponent's errors and predictable tendencies. (Miller, Sklansky & Malmuth, 2002) That's right, poker is a game of exploitation. When your opponent makes an error you must be ready to pounce and take full advantage of that mistake. When you have a read on an opponent you must be ready to aggressively pursue that read until your read is shown to be inaccurate. Conversely, when you make an error expect opponents to push you around, as they should.
This rule does not take into account the possibility of luck entering the picture. It assumes the long-term effect of probability laws and developing skills as a poker player. Luck effects instances of play while probability laws impact on overall play. That is why luck is not considered in this rule.
This is not to say that luck doesn't impact play. You will have days when none of your draws seem to hit, when none of your pocket pairs hold up, when your aces are cracked by 22. If you are playing correctly then what appears to be luck is really nothing more than the laws of probability working against you in a few instances. Remember, even a 99% favorite will lose 1% of the time.
If, in the end, you can look back at a session of play and say that you played correctly, then you have done your job. Poker is about making correct decisions with incomplete information. If your decision making process is good and you still get beaten in a hand shrug off the defeat and move on. Going on tilt, however, is a sure way to lose control of your decision making process and make you prone to error.
Reference:
Miller, E., D. Sklansky, & M. Malmuth, 2004, Small Stakes Hold'em: Winning big with expert play. Henderson, NV: Two Plus Two Publishing.
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