Chris Devonshire-Ellis:China's Next Five Year Plan? More of the Same
The Chinese Central Government has just released its commentary on the discussions
held on the working report delivered by President Hu Jintao, who has been responsible for the drafting of the next five-year plan. That plan, in typical long-winded style, is known officially as the "Communist Party of China Central Committee's Proposal for Formulating the 12th Five-Year Program for China's Economic and Social Development (2011-2015)." China's Premier Wen Jiabao also made an explanatory speech on the draft proposal to the plenum.
Despite the inevitable rhetoric, mutual backslapping, awarding of self-congratulatory prose and the inherent blaming of China's problems on the international financial crisis, what does the report actually conclude or say that can provide pointers to the full address that Hu will make when formally announcing the next five-year plan in March?
The text itself was relatively aggressive, stating that the CPC needed to "Seize and effectively utilize our country's important period of strategic opportunity" and "win new victories," while at the same time congratulating itself for unifying and leading the Chinese people in "building a moderately prosperous society and pushing forward the great cause of building socialism with Chinese characteristics." In which case, the political system is the be-all and end-all, and the economic and social aspects of China are purely the building blocks. Its system for systems sake, rather than being more intellectually diverse.
The terms "moderately prosperous" also seem odd. As I noted in my concerns over the amount of money China has been spending on temporary events, and the establishing of Rolls Royce and Ferrari dealerships in second tier cities, being "moderately prosperous" has not really been defined. A rise in income for sure, but would that be for the inland regions at the expense of the wealthy coast?
Coded messages also exist within international relations, stating that, concerning international situations, "China is still in an important period of strategic opportunities during which there is a great deal China can achieve, and it is faced with both precious historic opportunities and plenty of foreseeable and unforeseeable risks and challenges. We should strengthen the awareness of opportunities and potential risks." The historical aspect is interesting, with China often using its version of history as the correct one. However, China faces plenty of obstacles in border disputes where a strong second opinion also exists, and one that may violently disagree with China's version. The plenum agreed to "remarkably strengthen the country's comprehensive national power, international competitiveness and capability in shielding against risks." Expect more border incursions and regional friction seems to be the message deployed, perhaps even acknowledging war: "The building of a modern national defense system and modern armed forces must be strengthened with the abilities to conduct diverse military missions with a focus on the ability to win regional wars under information-based conditions." Cyber-attacks, an increase in spying and potential for actual conflict? They certainly considered the issue. Dovish this plenum was not.
Constantly within the draft are references to "socialist modernization," "the great banner of socialism with Chinese characteristics," and "Deng Xiaoping Theory," which appear littered throughout the text. Clearly, any movement away from the current political structure in China remains wishful thinking. The entire five-year plan is based on a political platform, not an economic or social one. That may turn out to be a major weakness if challenges to China's current political standing face unforeseen obstacles the plan does not, for example, appear to predict or even be aware of any.
However, on the development front, it did state the need to "Quicken the pace of a new growth pattern that is jointly driven by consumption, investment and exports. Efforts should be made to push forward rural modernization, accelerate the construction of new socialist rural areas, maintain coordinated development in rural and urban regions, promote the development of modern agriculture, improve public services and infrastructure construction in rural areas, and seek new ways to increase farmers' incomes."
In doing so, the CPC specifically acknowledge the threat of dissent amongst China's massive rural population after all, the CPC came into power on the back of a people-led revolution. Getting them into the picture seems to be a priority for this period, and I quote: "The rural development system will also be improved to build contented homes for farmers. Poverty alleviation work that targets old revolutionary base areas, ethnic regions, border areas and poverty-stricken areas will be strengthened." More money then, for the "old revolutionary peasants that put the Party into power in the first place. But apart from that, the peasant issue was skirted over, but internal security was more specific. "To properly handle contradictions among the people, and to take concrete measures to secure social harmony and stability." That usually means more policing and crackdowns on dissenting voices.
More importantly, China wants to upgrade. "The enhancement of the core competitiveness of industries by transforming and upgrading the manufacturing sector, developing strategic emerging industries, and accelerating the growth of the service sector." A "modern energy" industry and "the development of a comprehensive transport system" are as far as it commits to alternative energy and electric vehicles, while "the building of a resource-saving and environment-friendly society should be accelerated, and the ecological conservation culture should be promoted." Clearly, China is running out of the resources needed to get it to the next stage of development using existing technology. That went hand in hand with calling on the development for "upgrading China's scientific innovation ability, improving the innovation system and accelerating educational reform and development, which encourages talent and lays a solid foundation in terms of science and technology and human resources for the transformation of economic development pattern and achieving the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way." In short, innovation brings happiness. But I rather think the details are lacking.
Workers and pensioners may also expect to receive more, although it didn't say where the money would come from (presumably something the State Administration of Taxation will be called on to deliver) but it appears that welfare payments for employers may take a hit. "To increase the ratio of people's incomes to the national income and the ratio of workers' incomes in the primary distribution of national income, to perfect the social security system that covers urban and rural residents, and to accelerate the reform and development of the healthcare sector" are all very much aspects of China's mandatory welfare system for employees. It looks like employers will be called on to deliver "more salary, more unemployment and pension funds". Ominously, they go on to mention "reforms of fiscal and taxation systems should be accelerated."
At the end of the day, despite all the criticism and the inevitable comparisons with China, India's Commonwealth Games have proven a success for a country still adapting and emerging from decades of neglect and disarray. They weren't perfect, but India will learn from this and will move on. India's Commonwealth Games worked. They represent a platform for a newly resurgent nation, and as such, showed off India's capabilities rather well. And how did they do in the medals tables? India came second, and I'm sure they're happy with that. It's never been about having to win all the time. For India, it's been about learning and participating. And that they did rather well.
Chris Devonshire-Ellis:China's Next Five Year Plan? More of the Same
By: Chris Devonshire -Ellis
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