Day Trading: Defining the Term Trend
Day Trading: Defining the Term Trend
Day Trading: Defining the Term Trend
The term "trend" is bandied about with fierce regularity among traders of all types. Long-term traders look at trends in a far different perspective than short-term traders. Which leaves most traders, especially novice day traders, in a quandary. In general, a market trend is the tendency of the market to move in one direction for a period of time. I think that's where most traders become confused, as the "period of time" is a variable of many dimensions.
Ultra-long term market trends can be measured in periods of 5 to 20 years. On the other hand, a day trader may look at a trend in terms of hours. With all this diversity in the period of time it takes to establish a trend it is often difficult to specifically define what qualifies as a trend.
Before we go much further, I think it is important to understand that in the academic world there is no trend. The current theory being taught, Efficient Market Theory, claims that equity pricing always discounts all known factors into the current price of the equity in question. That being said, there is no room for the term trend in efficient market theory because each price properly equates the value of an equity any given time. To take this to the point of ridiculousness, Efficient Market Theory would have to accept the notion that a given equity increases in price and value, at least intrinsic value, from minute to minute. Of course, recent financial calamities in the markets have led to no small amount of skepticism among traders and Efficient Market Theory. I would also note that traders, as a whole, have never embraced Efficient Market Theory.
For intraday trading, which is really no more than trading during a daily trading session, we need to devise a workable definition to define the term trend. Depending on which book you care to read, most economists and financial authors claim that the market trends between 30 and 40% of the time. The remainder of the time the market is involved in normal backing and filling operations. I define these backing and filling operations as market noise and tend to avoid trading during these periods. Another more workable definition for non-trending markets, at least in the system I trade, is time the market spends wandering between the +100 and -100 lines on the Commodity Channel Index. While this definition may seem a little technical, it is fairly accurate. Hence, I seldom initiate trades when the market price action is in the area between +100 and -100.
Another handy definition can be found using the NYSE tick indicator. I use a similar methodology with the NYSE tick indicator, and consider any market movement between +400 and -400 market noise. Just like that Commodity Channel Index, I see to avoid making any trades during these periods of market noise, or normal backing and filling operation of the market.
There is some misconception about what a trend looks like on a chart. Many new traders expect a trend to be a straight line up for down (depending on whether he you are considering long or short trades). But any trend will go through periods of retracement in the course of a normal trend. Often times, Fibonacci analysis is used to calculate the strength of the retracement, though it is not necessarily imperative. My point here is a simple one; the market will advance for a period of time, and then retrace its advancement for while, sometimes up to 50% or more of the initial advance, then resume trading in the direction of the original trend. The resulting price action line on the chart resembles a serpentine pattern in definite direction. Trends seldom move in an absolute straight line, though euphoric buying and panic selling can create a spike that moves straight up or down. In my opinion, spikes in the market cannot be defined as trends as they are usually the result of some unusual market activity, world catastrophe or political unrest.
So we have come up with some finite definitions to define market noise and trend. A trend will move in one direction in a serpentine pattern, while backing and filling operations usually indicate a consolidating pattern in the market where the price action tends to stay in a narrowly defined channel. We also have noted that trends can mean a variety of things to different traders or investors, and the term "time period" is essential to understand as it relates to trends. Trends can be as long as 25 years and as short as an hour. The term trend is closely related in definition to the style of trading each trader employs.
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