Domestic Money Matter: Rajesh Sharma Money Matters

Domestic Money Matter: Rajesh Sharma Money Matters

USD/INR: The USD/INR pair closed at 54.42 tracking the gains in Euro and other Asian peers. The rupee was broadly flat tracking a mild recovery in risk assets after G8 leaders over the weekend backed keeping Greece in the eurozone and vowed to take all steps needed to combat financial turmoil. The intraday trend for USDINR is bearish, with support and resistance at 54.30 and 54.70 respectively.

Sensex: Indian stock markets rose 0.8% on Monday tracking a slight improvement in risk appetite. Sensex closed at 15868. Indian equities feel the pressure mounting owing to mixed cues from Asian peers. Focus will be on Tata Steel after it reported a drop in quarterly profits post market hours on Friday. Sensex is expected to trade in the range of 15500-16700.

G-Sec: Indian bonds yields are likely to take cues from the news on new 10Y paper at this weeks auction. Post market hours Monday RBI is going to announce on the papers to be auctioned. Open market operations are likely and this would keep a tab on the yield rise. The 10-year benchmark yields had ended at 8.53% on Friday, a rise of 3 bps as compared to the previous close. The benchmark is expected to trade between 8.50-8.60%.

OIS: India OIS rates fall as a drop in global crude oil prices to their lowest in 2012 help calm inflation concerns. 1Y was down 5bps to 7.95% and 5Y falls to 7.42%. The front end of the curve fell faster than the long end due to lower borrowing from RBI counter. 5Y is expected in the range 7.35-7.45%

Global Money Matter: Rajesh Sharma Money Matters

DXY: DXY rose to a four month high of 81.75 as the Euro fell to hit a four month low end of last week. IN G8 conference held over the weekend, the leaders did not reach a conclusive decision about the roadmap ahead for the Eurozone but firmly reiterated that Greece should remain in the common area. US Treasuries pared some of its earlier gains when benchmark yields had declined to 1.69%. The intraday trend for the DXY index is bearish, with support and resistance at 80.30 and 81.50 respectively.

EUR/USD: The euro extended its rebound from last weeks four month low in the morning but investors remained concerned over the financial turmoil in Greece and Spain, drawing little comfort from broad G8 pledge to take steps to fight the euro zones debt crisis. The euro has managed to stay above its 2012 low at $1.2624, a break of which would take the single currency back to depths not seen since August 2010. The intraday trend for the EURUSD cross is bullish, with support and resistance at 1.2700 and 1.2850 respectively.

GBP/USD: Pound is likely to take cue from the minutes of the latest BOE policy meeting. The minutes are likely to reinforce it was a close call to pause asset purchases earlier this month. But the case for further easing ahead is likely be supported by both moderating inflation pressure in April and sluggishness in retail sales growth. The GBP/USD is currently trading marginally stronger at 1.5830 compared to Friday's close of 1.5815, taking cues from Dollar movements. Intraday trend for the GBPUSD cross is bullish, with support and resistance at 1.5770 and 1.5890 respectively.

USD/JPY: Safe haven yen comes off recent highs as riskier assets, which fell sharply last week, inched higher. G8 leaders back Greece in the euro zone and push to balance European austerity with stimulus. With the yen on the back foot, the dollar rises 0.2%. The intraday trend for USDJPY is bearish, with support and resistance at 78.71 and 79.90 respectively. Inputs received Rajesh Sharma Money Matters Financial Services Ltd, CMD

Disclaimer: I, Rajesh Sharma, hereby certify that the views expressed reflect my personal views about the subject. The information contained herein is from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. This document is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for any investment decision.

by: Balaji

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