Extracting Value With Strong Hands
Profitable poker is enhanced when you are able to extract maximum value with strong hands
. Often when you hold a strong hand and you hit the flop a strong bet on the flop induces nothing but folds and you win a very small pot. While it is absolutely true that any pot won, big or small, is nothing to sneeze at, it is far more satisfying to get value from your big hands. With strong hands, however, we cannot be blinded by the possibility that we are second best. When involved in a hand when we are strong, it is important to consider whether or not we should follow standard play or deviate from the standard by slowing down a bit and let our opponent bet into us. Much depends on how you have been playing as well as how your opponents have been playing against you.
Analysis
You are in the small blind with about $120 in your stack. You are dealt As-Qs. The table folds to the button who just limps in a $2 no-limit hold'em game. The button tends to be a weaker player who has been reluctant to play back at aggression with $210 behind. I decide to raise for value and you make it $5 to go. The big blind mucks and the button calls. We see a heads-up flop out of position.
The flop looks great for me, Ad-7s-2s. Top pair with second-best kicker and a nut flush draw, 11 outs without the 2 additional outs that come from non-spade queens. Because my kicker is a queen, however, I discount those to only one out or a total of 12 outs making me at worst a 3:1 underdog to complete a draw and a 4:1 dog to complete my flush. I am certain I will play this hand. I have several choices here. I could bet half to two-thirds the pot, the standard bet which is my normal move. I could min-bet but that would raise suspicion in an alert opponent. I could check but, again because I was the pre-flop raiser that would also raise suspicion. I could bet for value, say one-quarter of the pot which might look like a probe bet. Or I could pull the trigger and make a very large raise, up to a pot sized bet.
My opponent is likely to call with any ace, any spade draw, or any pair. If he has a big hand he may even raise with AA or AK. Because, however, he tends to be timid, even when playing big hands, it is unlikely that a check will gain us any information so I don't like the check in this spot. I don't like the option of min-betting or the standard bet in this case either. A probe bet accomplishes our goal of getting a call from my opponent if he has a playable hand and I don't even mind a small raise here because if I hit the nuts I will be in a great position to punish him. If I make a probe bet, I have the opportunity to check on the turn especially if I make any of our draws, making my opponent act first and gaining the advantage of position while throwing out enough rope for my opponent to hang himself. So a bet of $3 seems to be a good amount for a probe in this case. My opponent makes it $6 and I call. I am reasonably certain that my opponent has hit either a set or a big pair, has an underpair, or has a flush draw. In any of these cases, if I hit my flush I have the nuts at the same time he is somewhat likely to have second best flush and it will be hard for him to get away from his hand.
The turn is a 9s giving me the nut flush. Since we were raised, I decide to check with the nuts. My decision to check here leaves me a couple of options. If my opponent puts money into the pot I have the option to check-raise or check-call. This leaves me options on the river. My opponent bets $10. At this point it is apparent that he made a flush or that he has a pair that turned a set, AA, 77 or 22. In any of these I have him crushed. I decide to just call. My call is designed to misdirect my opponent into thinking I am still on a draw, therefore, I am weak. I am certain he won't read my check-call as a misdirection play.
The river is a Th. If I were on a draw my opponent will read this card as a blank for me. At this point I don't want to give my opponent a free look and I want him to think that the ten hit my hand. He might put me on two pair here and think he is good. He may think I have a broken flush draw but, because of the way I played my hand, I don't believe he puts me on a flush, let alone the nuts. If he is as strong as I think he is he will call a standard bet and may even call a pot-sized bet here. He may also raise my standard bet. I am really interested in extracting as many of his chips as possible. I make a bet to around two-thirds the pot, a bet size intended to look like I am really happy with the ten. If he believes that the ten gave me two pair he will raise. If he thinks the ten gave me a set he will raise with a bigger set. If he thinks I was on a busted draw and he has a made flush he may even pull the trigger for all my chips. He raises me all-in and I insta-call. He turns over a king high flush, second best to my ace high flush. I doubled up, extracting maximum value from this hand.
My probe bet on the flop looked like I held nothing but a weak draw. Because my opponent made a weak raise and I called that reinforced that image in my opponent's mind. Check-calling on the turn provided even more ammunition convincing my opponent to continue his betting with second best. My bet on the river was out of character and looked strong, a move which fit the rule of thumb that when your opponent bets strong he is generally weak. This misdirection worked quite well.
Final Thoughts
The point of this analysis is that sometimes it is important to slow down, allowing your opponent to lead out. While I generally don't like giving my opponent a free card, when I am convinced that he will bet at me with second best I am willing to let him. If my probe bet on the flop only drew a call rather than a raise, I would bet the turn strong rather than checking because I believe that this opponent would fold to any bet at that time unless he made a hand of some sort. If he bet back at me I still accomplish the goal of extracting value from the nuts. If he folds on the turn then I most likely would not be able to extract any further value from this hand and I would be quite satisfied to win a decent sized pot.
by: Roger Fischel
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