Flemington favourites can burn a hole in your wallet
The Sunday spotlight will be on Flemington and it's hard not to get really excited
about the Melbourne Cup Carnival Preview Day featuring the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes and $1.8 million in prizemoney.
From a punting perspective however it's worth keeping in mind that Flemington can be a real graveyard for favourite backers.
Let's take a look at the stats there (at level stakes) over the last 12 months:
Favourites have a 25% strike-rate and have lost 15% on turnover
2nd favourites have just a 15% strike-rate and have lost 24% on turnover
These really are terrible figures and they don't get any better if you were betting proportionately, with favourites losing 20% on turnover and second favourites 18%.
To demonstrate just how bad those results are, the first two favourites across all tracks in Australia over the last 12 months lost just 6% on turnover. The fact is that fancied runners at Flemington have performed three times worse than the rest of Australia. That is quite a significant difference and one you should keep in mind before outlaying your hard earned on Turnbull Stakes Day.
Here are the Profit on Turnover rankings' for the top two in the market at each of the Melbourne metro tracks over the last year:
+7% Sandown Hillside
+2% Moonee Valley
0% Sandown Lakeside
-6% Caulfield
-19% Flemington
So why does the market getting it so badly wrong at Flemington? Here are just a few reasons to consider:
Horses that are used to running on tight tracks can have huge form reversals (good and bad) when racing down the very long Flemington straight. There is any number of physical, physiological and even psychological reasons for this, but the fact is that most horses are simply not used to running that far in a straight line.
On some tracks you can safely discount backmarkers but at Flemington the long straight means that it's far more likely that these horses will get their chance to win, making for more open racing with more winning chances than many other tracks.
The prevailing wind conditions can have a huge effect on the outcome. Particularly for the straight races, the direction and strength of the wind plays a big part in the chances of those horses drawn on the inside.
Flemington often hosts large fields and aggressive riding, which means luck in running can play a huge factor.
So rather than being put off having a bet on Sunday by the 19% loss on turnover of favourites and second favourites, how should you attack Turnbull day and the big Flemington meetings over the Spring?
Be absolutely certain that you have done a lot of very detailed form study
Strong Flemington form should be highly regarded.
Be prepared to be flexible once you have seen how the track is playing.
Consider laying the short-priced horses that you don't like on Betfair.
Even though it's tempting to get involved in many races, be prepared to watch them go around without actually betting.
Consider going wide in your quaddies and looking for value.
Bear in mind that markets tend to under-react on the day to how the track is playing, particularly regarding the wind conditions discussed earlier. A lot of betting is done Thursday, Friday and early Saturday and this gives the market a base and some rigidity. But to use the hypothetical example where betting was banned until say 20 minutes before the jump, that market would often be very different to the one that we actually bet into that is the result of 72 hours assessment and betting activity.
This means that professionals and others prepared to put the work in can get good value by doing the extra analysis and being flexible on the day.
Flemington favourites can burn a hole in your wallet
By: David Duffield
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