Forex Trading - When Do I Enter The Market?
The biggest question that surrounds trading Forex or any other financial market is simply this
, When do I enter the market? Anyone who has traded a demo trading account or a live account knows that this is the most important question. When do you "pull the trigger"?
Before we answer that we need to understand what is happening on a day-to-day basis in the Forex market.
Many Forex traders are not aware of the large number of traders in the Forex market and the influence or non-influence that traders have on supply and demand. If you are trading the Pound/Dollar then you want to place your order when demand for the Pound is increasing or demand for the Dollar is increasing. When is that exactly and how do you measure it?
In Forex the largest group of traders by far, are Commercial traders. The results of their positions can be seen each week at the CFTC site under the Commitment of Traders Report. Commercial traders DO NOT try to make money from their currency transactions. They are not interested in Volatility but Stability. They are like a big ship going one direction that takes time and effort to turn. Even more than that, they resist turning. Their goal is stabile prices in order to run their businesses, countries, and institutions.
The second group of traders are Non-Commercial traders who speculate. They are trying to make money in the Forex market for themselves and their clients. There is some debate as to whether this group can create a trend. It is my opinion that if conditions are right a herding affect can take place where there is a sustained demand for one currency or another and therefore a trend but these traders do not have the power to sustain a trend and maintain it on their own.
Does this help us answer the question of when to enter the market?
Let make up an example. Say we have a large company about to invest in something that requires U.S. Dollars. The bank that is doing this for them begins to make purchases. Retail traders, you and I, don't know about this obviously. Other traders however in the network of Non-commercial traders have their contacts and the word gets out in particular when the demand for Dollars increases. More Non-commercial traders jump on board and demand for the Dollar increases even more.
Retail traders see a solid move on the trading charts. Perhaps this occurred in the beginning of the New York session and by 4PM the Dollar had gained 100 pips against the pound. Sharp retail traders would have been looking for this kind of trade every day. Depending on the type of trading system they would have seen more than just the bars or candles moving on their charts, they would also see momentum changes.
However, at the end of the trading day, the trade momentum created by the sales of the initial bank may have slowed (intentionally). Many traders still would not know the reason for the change in prices because the banks job is to subtly make the investments. To do otherwise could cause a buying panic and prices for the investment would increase.
The lull overnight might turn into a small retracement. In fact, the lull may look like a move back into consolidation.
The next day however, the bank must buy more. Now traders not holding Dollars required to purchase the investment must have found out about the investment and are converting their currency in favor of the dollar. This creates more volatility. Now, the big Commercial traders must get into action to stabilize their positions. This can cause even greater demand. This continues until the bank in question completes its job. The size of the investment that was initially begun directly relates to home much of a trend was created.
This is a simple example of a situation in the market that can cause volatility.
As a retail trader, how would you have known? Maybe a better question is when would you have known?
The top traders learn to not only follow price but to understand momentum changes in price. Momentum changes tied with actual "key" trading times in the market can provide the first indications that the market is reading to move. It is this understanding of momentum that alerts top traders to the conditions that something is happening in the market.
Many very wealthy traders have admitted that they are more lucky than good but they also will tell you that they were prepared to take advantage of the luck. Momentum from an indicator like RSI can help with that preparedness.
Try learning about RSI, The Relative Strength Index, to locate momentum changes, in particular Positive and Negative Reversals. This will get you prepared to take part in those trend opportunities when to enter the market.
by: Paul Dean
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