Frbiz Reports Rigid Pvc Chemical Demand Prompted To Open Up Space
With strong international commodity markets rose at a relatively low level of domestic
goods began to launch up market, especially the performance is fat varieties and PVC. PVC weak trend of the past few days, showed significant upward trend, the current contract price of Dalian PVC main near 8,000 yuan / ton. This upward trend mainly by the macro economy, monetary policy impact on financial markets stabilize, and the cash demand for PVC and other factors improved.
First of all, the strong rise in international commodity, driving up domestic goods atmosphere. 3 at the end of this year so far, the international crude oil and copper, the main strength of commodities rise, crude oil break through 73 U.S. dollars / barrel -83 U.S. dollar / barrel oscillation range, up to 87 U.S. dollars / barrel position, while LME copper rose to 8,000 USD / tonne level. Although the U.S. economy gradually recovers, but still maintain "jobless" economic growth in the state, the core consumer price index remained at a low 1%. So far, the Fed made it clear that further maintain low interest rates. In this context, a continuous rise in the Dow, the dollar is slightly weak, strong commodities higher, while the European Central Bank, Japan and other major countries to keep interest rates unchanged, relaxed atmosphere of the global economy helped lift prices of domestic goods market.
Second, China's macroeconomic stability, monetary policy is expected from the tight line. From January 17 this year, began tightening monetary policy signals have been shrouded in domestic commodity markets, particularly in the reserve of up market interest rates caused the expected increase. April 8, the Central Bank issued three-year period before the vote is to reverse the market's expectations that central banks prefer to use open market operations by means of market liquidity to tighten the money. First half of 2010 interest rates less likely, it set aside for the domestic commodity market 3 months of policy stability.
Third, the RMB appreciation is expected to push up commodity increases. RMB exchange rate policy by the U.S. dollar index comparison of historical trends, I believe that there is the possibility of RMB appreciation, the time may raise interest rates before the introduction of policies. From July 2005 to July 2008, the yuan rose steadily, the appreciation rate of 20%. The dollar index fell began in 2001, rebounded in 2005, while the RMB exchange rate reform is a rebound in the dollar this period. July 2008, in view of the financial crisis and the tremendous impact on the dollar, the RMB exchange rate remained at 6.82 yuan against one U.S. dollar a stable range, mainly to avoid causing large changes in U.S. dollar trading risk. Since the end of 2009, the dollar is stabilizing, and are beginning to rebound. In this process, restore the yuan to appreciate, which will further open up space for merchandise.
Fourth, PVC supply and demand levels well, the "cost push up + demand-pull" double stimulation. The current inventory at a relatively low PVC society, in March focused on warehouse receipts delivery library makes it into the spot market write-off, stock price pressure gradually decreased. Although the monthly operating rate of PVC remained at between 60% -70%, 55% higher than the average 2009 level, but the PVC's long-term needs of low inventories and the recovery will not be so rigid PVC oversupply.
Ethylene and calcium carbide are lifting the cost of PVC. Continuous rise in oil prices caused the price of chemical oil and ethylene up, although the high price may not be sustained, but the cost of ethylene production greater impact PVC. Current PVC ethylene production margins are even negative, there is an upward trend in the spot price. In the calcium carbide, the elimination of backward production capacity of policy making calcium carbide price steadily uplift. April 2010, the state has promulgated nine industry structure adjustment policy, which increased the market price of calcium carbide and PVC rising expectations. Currently, prices remained stable in all regions increased calcium carbide, calcium carbide price Southwest 3450 yuan / ton.
In summary, chemical products, PVC rigid demand led after the first one to rebound this spring, with the arrival of the traditional peak season demand, PVC demand will further increase. With the general rise in real estate turnover and prices, stable macroeconomic policies for domestic goods further up the foundation, the next PVC futures and spot prices will be further forward direction, down to less space.
by: heiyou
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