General strategies that apply to sports wagering
Now that we've looked at what kinds of bets should be avoided
, here are some
general strategies that apply to all sports wagering
There are a few all-encompassing ideas that will improve the quality of your wagers and
increase your rate of successes, regardless of what sport you're betting on. There is a
certain excitement that comes from betting impulsively, but every successful sports bettor
will tell you that following these rules will pay off in the long run.
Rule : Bet selectively
Not every game in every sport is a "bettable game;" that is, just because Vegas
and the local bookies put out lines for it doesn't mean you have to put money on it. Many
novices to the world of sports wagering crave action, and because of this, get tempted
into making poor wagering decisions. In the following pages I will delve deeper into
what makes a game a "bettable" game, but for now suffice to say that for each sport, a
good policy is to pick no more than two or three games to bet on at a time. For the NFL,
this means two or three games a week. For the NBA, similar restraint can be exercised by
waiting for a match-up you like, such as an underdog with momentum behind them takes
on a slumping favorite, for instance. When wagering on baseball, wait until a team has a
favorable pitching match-up. Wagering on anything but the most bettable games does not
win money in the long termit loses money. To sum up, not every game should be
wagered on. In fact, the large majority of them should not.
Think back to the First Rule of sports wagering: treating your wagers as an
investment. When you wager on a team, you are essentially "buying" that team's
performance during the game in question. The line at which you bet on a team is
essentially the price you pay to buy that team. Just as you wouldn't buy an overpriced
stock, don't pay more than you feel a team is worth. However, like stocks, lines change,
and a previously unbettable game may become bettable later in the week, or vice versa.
We'll explore this in the next section.
A second issue to address is the "double or nothing" mentality that many bettors
fall into after losses. In an attempt to break even, many reckless bettors will double the
units of their bets on the next batch of games hoping that they will balance out or even
make money overall. Still worse, some bettors will try to end a losing season on a high
note by putting huge amounts of money on a single game such as the Superbowl, or a
championship series in other sports. As we will continue to emphasize, such breaks from
one's overall betting patterns do not pay off in the long run, and can compound already
Rule : Shop around
We mentioned earlier that the lines out of Las Vegas are by no means the only
lines available to bet a game. Over the course of a week a line may shift several points,
and a team that was not bettable at a certain price earlier in the week may become
bettable closer to the game, or vice versa, particularly when betting the NFL, where there
is almost a week between when the first numbers are sent out and when the game is
played.
As a savvy bettor, it is essential to have a variety of options available to you when
deciding to place your bets. A good analogy is shopping for gas. Nearly everyone has
experienced seeing one price posted at a certain station and thinking "I'm sure I could get
a better deal than that at (x) gas station down the road." Just as variations of a few
fractions of a cent in price can make a considerable difference when multiplied by a full
tank of gas, in the sports betting business where the margin of victory is often very slim,
an extra point one way or another can make be crucial. By exploiting the many different
lines on a game, you can get the best value for your money, turn what would be losses
with one bookie into wins against another, and get a sense of how a number of experts
(the oddsmakers) see the game playing out. Let's look at what happens to the send out
numbers during a typical week in the NFL.
The number that the Las Vegas Sports Consultants send out is not necessarily the
number "normal" bettors will see. As these lines are picked up by the Las Vegas sports
books, the sports books will make their own minor adjustments to the lines as they see fit.
By Monday morning nearly all sports books will have lines posted. Because some sports
books make their own lines, and do not rely on the Las Vegas numbers, on Monday
mornings there can often be a wide variety of lines available. Some professional bettors
will pounce on these early numbers if they feel a certain line is inaccurate. As more bets
are placed, the numbers will drift towards a "truer" line.
Illegal bookies will often not release lines until Thursday or even later. Many
bettors who count on local bookies are unable to get their bets in until the day of the
game. Because the bookies have had the chance to monitor betting patterns and adjust
their line accordingly, it is much more difficult for bettors in this situation to find an
edge. Serious bettors must have access to betting lines on Sunday night or Monday
morning at the latest. Any responsible bettor should have access to a number of lines and
"shop around" for the best price.
TIP: If your local bookmaker does not have football line available to you early in the
week, consider finding another bookmaker or looking online. In the world of sports
betting, the earlier you can get a line on a game, the better.
Let's take a look at how the send out numbers changed in a real life NFL example
from the 1996 season:
Bengals at Jaguars For this game, the send out numbers favored the Jaguars by
one and a half points. The sports books that posted Sunday night tended to disagree, and
many had the Jaguars as three point favorites. By Monday morning, the line was split
between 2.5 and three points. As Monday progressed, the threes disappeared, the majority
of lines favored the Jaguars by 2.5, and the occasional two was sprinkled in. This was a
result of many Cincinnati bettors predicting the line would not go higher than three, and
choosing to bet on that early number.
The 2.5s stayed for the rest of the week. Thus, the average bettor only had one
price available to him for this game. However, bettors with good access could either take
three points on the Bengals or give two points on the Jaguars. The final score was Jaguars
30, Bengals 27, and it was a mini-disaster for some of the Vegas sports books. All Jaguar
bettors won, and a number of Bengal bettors escaped with a tie by getting three points
early in the week.
The term for this situation (winning one side of a game and pushing the other) is
called a "side." Had the line ever reached 3.5, it would have opened up the possibility of
a "middle," a situation that bookies try to avoid at all costs.
TIP: Keep an eye out for the possibility of catching a side or a middle. While the Las
Vegas Sports Consultants generally do a good job of making lines that won't move
around enough to make the possibility of middles terribly likely, on occasion you will
find the chance to exploit these opportunities.
To obtain more information on sports handicapping and how to make the best picks visit http://www.sportshandicappingonline.com/ and they will provide you with a 1 week free trial if you contact Peter Hammermill.
General strategies that apply to sports wagering
By: Sam Jones
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