How Good Are Your Football Pools Results Forecasts?
How Good Are Your Football Pools Results Forecasts
?
If you are serious about betting on the UK football pools then you should be using a proven football pools system, and probably staking through a pools syndicate. This way you will be using football results analysis to provide performance indicators for the teams, and a list of match results. Then, with a syndicate you will be maximising the stake you can place. With the best staking plan that you can afford, which gives you the desired balance between coverage and guarantee, you will then be in a position to ensure that you have the best chance of finding the winning line.
Improve your Skills
With any prediction system though, it is important to refine your skill and improve your prediction quality. For example, you may choose to adjust your forecasts to take account of injuries, team selections and end of season relegation or promotion battles. To improve your forecast performance, you need to measure it to improve it. It is easy to do!
Sure, you can say we won four times this season', but that is only a rough measure of your betting performance. For others, their bank' is their measure. Fair enough, but hardly a sound way to go. You know the saying "the bookies always win". Well, that is because they are always on top of their numbers.
You should measure your performance every week, and compare it. Do you know what your performance was last week?
You don't need 100%
By the way, your hit rate doesn't have to be 100% to give you a win. If you can find 8 draws in a line on a week when there are 11 draws in the results, and you can clean up nicely that's a hit rate of 72%.
Here's a way to work it out.
Let's say that your plan last week was a 19,000 line plan. For UK football treble chance football pools, that would be 19,000 separate entries of 8 draw selections from 49 matches.
The random odds of winning with one line (assuming that there are 8 draws in the results) would be 1 in 451 million. That's a big number, but we have 19,000 attempts, which knocks those odds down to 1 in 24,000. Still a big number, but a big! That's still with a random forecast.
Now, what result did you achieve?
Let's say that there were 8 draws in the results, and your system picked 5 of those draws. Now, it maybe that those five were not in the same line it happens. But, the forecast system you used predicted 5 of the 8 that's 63%. Work this out weekly, and compare it. is good. If there were 12 draws, then 63% hit rate might give you 7, perhaps 8 draws.
You pays your money and you takes your choice when it comes to staking, but the money is wasted unless you are generating forecasts which are better than random. You only need to get it right a few times a year to cover your stakes and even have a good win.
If you are have these elements in place, then you are reducing your odds from 1 in 24,000 (with a 19,000 line plan) down to maybe 1 in 8 or 10, or even lower.
Therefore, it pays to:
use a proven forecasting system that works, and
measure its effectiveness continuously
stake through a syndicate so that you can afford bigger plans
There is a lot more to being profitable with the football pools. You need to know when not to do them too, when teams will not be playing to form.
(c) 2011 Phil Marks
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