How to Make Baseball Picks

How to Make Baseball Picks

How to Make Baseball Picks

Making your own baseball picks can be a rewarding process. I don't mean just on the monetary side, either. Many people that follow baseball enjoy the thrill of analyzing upcoming games whether for betting, fantasy leagues, or just plain fun. The better you are at making winning baseball picks, the more you will enjoy the process. In order to make educated decisions, there are some things you should know.

The first important fact relates to the total runs scored in a game. The majority of winning margins are odd numbers. For example, if a game is tied going into the bottom of the ninth inning, a single run will win the game. This indicates that the margin of victory is usually 1an odd number. A tied score has an even number as the total runs line, but just adding one run will make the total an odd number. For betting purposes, you should use this information to help you when betting the total runs line or the spread.

Another thing to take into account is the half-game or 5 inning line. These are much more easily won than full game bets because you usually do not have to take into account replacement players for this early in the game. With a 5 inning line, you only need to take into consideration the starting pitcher and starting batters. This makes handicapping half-games much simpler. Be aware, though, that handicapping these lines is easier for the sports books too. But if you can find differences between your opinion and the sports books', you can capitalize off of their mistakes.

Finally, you will want to take into account statistics. This is the most important aspect of your analysis. Unlike other sports, baseball is a game where stats are extremely dependable. This does not mean that you will always be right with your predictions, but if you take into account the correct stats, you will drastically improve your chances of being right. To do this, you will need to shake off the notion created by the stats on the backs of baseball cards. RBIs, stolen bases, and even batting averages are not accurate enough numbers to base a game's outcome upon.

You need to look at other stats when judging offenses, such as a batter's on base percentage and how much power they hit for, (slugging percentage). These two stats (OBP and SLG) show us how often a batter gets on base and how much they advance other already on base. As you can probably guess, these two factors matter much more when considering getting batters on base than a straight batting average will. One good reason for this is that walks are just as important as singles. Rather than discounting walks, OBP weighs them just as powerfully since both serve the same objective for a team. As you can see, there is quite a bit of difference in the new stats that dictate game outcomes. By educating yourself as to their usefulness, you will improve your handicapping.

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