India Cpi Flash - Rajesh Sharma Money Matters

CPI April number Crosses 10%, It gets tougher for RBI on policy decision..says Rajesh Sharma Money Matters CMD

. New CPI gives jitters approximately increasing by 100 bps (A basis point (often denoted as bp, colloquially referred to in the plural as "bips", also known as a beep) is a unit equal to 1/100 of a percentage point) since the release of the first print in Jan 2012 which came in at 7.6% and followed by an 8.8% and 9.5% print in Feb and March. The latest April release comes at 10.4%. Comparing with WPI, from Jan April the fig were 6.9%, 7.4%, 6.9% and 7.2% respectively. The key reason for the trend in the CPI from 7.6% in Jan to 10.4% in April is due to food prices which have seen the rate of inflation more than doubling from 4.5% in Jan to 10.4% in April. CPI readings ex-food and fuel remain in double digits (Ex Food: 10.5%; Ex Food/Fuel: 10.3%). Monsoon and structural factors like rise in MSP are driving the inflation higher. Going forward the trend would remain firm.

Highlights Food prices have doubled: Trends in the food component have more than doubled from 4.5% in Jan to 10.2% in April. This is due to higher vegetable prices (which rose 25% vs. -25% levels in Jan), oils (+18%), protein-rich products (eggs, dairy products - up 10% and 15%). Apart from misc goods where CPI was up 8.4%, double-digit price rises were evident across food (+10.2%), housing (+14.8%), clothing/footwear (+12%), and fuel (+11.4%).

In line with trends seen earlier, prices at the urban level (+11.1%) continue to outpace those at the rural level (+9.9%). This is because housing is not included in the rural index.

Policy implications..RBI in dilemma

Although CPI is a new index and with the absence of trends, seasonal effects it is unlikely to be currently used as a key determinant of monetary policy. It still gives an outlook of (a) suppressed inflation, (b) exchange rate pass-through, (c) impact of tax hikes, (d) higher food inflation, (e) retail/wage pressure. Rajesh Sharma CMD Money Matters expects one more rate cut this year. We would make our revisions after watching for the following factors like fall in oil prices, GDP slipping below 6%, IIP. Recently RBI has switched its focus on non-food manufactured inflation which is now trending to its long-term target of 4%. This also would help up understand more on policy implication. -Rajesh Sharma , Money Matters Financial Services Ltd.

by: Balaji

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