India may face heat on outsourcing; CTBT, climate on back burner

India may face heat on outsourcing; CTBT, climate on back burner

As President Barack Obama adapts to the popular revolt against his Democratic Party, two contentious themes in India-US relations climate change and CTBT are likely to move to the back burner. The picture on other issues of interest to India is likely to be a mixed one. There will be stronger protectionist sentiment in the new US Congress. The fires of economic nationalism might be directed mainly at China, but India will feel some of the heat on outsourcing. It should also brace for a tougher line against Iran in the US Congress.

The Republicans are likely to support, at least for the moment, a US military commitment to finish the job in Afghanistan. Congress is likely to take a closer look at the Pakistan army's support to the Taliban, and the links between Pakistan and the spread of domestic terrorism in the US.

Foreign policy was not a major issue in the mid-term elections. But the changed political composition of the Congress and the altered balance between Democrats and Republicans and between the President and Congress is certain to change the priorities and emphases in America's foreign policy over the next two years.

In his initial engagement with India last year, Obama had elevated climate change to the top of the bilateral agenda and mounted relentless pressure on the UPA government to redefine India's entrenched positions.

Yet, despite control of both Houses, Obama could not complete the legislation on energy and climate change. He faced a lot of resistance from the US energy industry and conservative groups that did not share his enthusiasm for mitigating climate change.

Representative John Boehner, an Ohio Republican who is likely to become the next speaker of the House, had vigorously resisted the climate change bill that Democrats had pushed through the House of Representatives.

Nuclear disarmament was another lofty theme for Obama and the liberal wing of the Democratic Party. His speech in Prague calling for the elimination of nuclear weapons won him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009.

Obama was hoping the Senate would soon approve a nuclear arms reduction treaty he had concluded with Russia last April. The next step in his plan was to get the Senate to ratify the CTBT.

During the last two years, the international community has been appealing to India to join the CTBT. India ducked but promised to review its position after Washington and Beijing ratified the treaty.

The Democrats still have control of the Senate, but they need two-thirds majority to ratify any treaty. Republican distrust of arms control agreements means the Senate is unlikely to ratify the CTBT in the near future.

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