Industrial Economy To Stabilize In 2010 Called For A Steady Stimulus
"2010 is still better to consolidate the basis of industrial rebound a critical period
. 2010 scale industrial added value increased by 11% will be maintained at about flat with 2009, showing" high to stability, "the state development." Yesterday, In the "third quarter of 2009, China's electronic information industry bulletin of economic operation," the meeting, the Ministry of Industry and Information, Deputy Secretary of the monitor coordinate high-Su-mei forecast.
Picked to lay a good foundation for next year
Analysis of high-Su-mei, this year in the central capital growth, expand domestic demand, adjust the structure of a package of policy role, the industrial economy by the financial crisis appears to contain a substantial slowdown, picking up basically decided. Sept. scale industrial added value grew 13.9% year on year, the annual growth rate is expected to be between 11% -12%, this favorable situation for next year's industrial economy has laid a good foundation.
Industrial economy as a "barometer", industrial consumption reflects the current operation of the industrial economy. September is about the national society 322.408 billion kwh electricity, up by 10.24%, an increase of two percentage points higher than in August, the first industrial power consumption 8.4 billion kwh, up 8.13%; the second industrial power 230 800 000 000 kWh, up 8.87%; the third industrial power 38,000,000,000 kwh, an increase of 5.45%. Industrial economy is driving the rapid resumption of rapid growth in electricity consumption the main reason.
Gao Su-mei believes that next year China's industrial economy as a whole should be better than that this year, the industrial added value is expected to increase 11% year on year. However, international markets, the level before the financial crisis will take some time, China's exports are still higher pressure and other factors, China's industrial economy will face a complex environment is still grim, still steady upward trend in 2010 remains the consolidation of industrial recovery better basis for a critical period. Industrial economy this year, has quickly picked up by the policy impact will continue into the first quarter of next year, then will gradually stabilize, showing "high to stable" situation.
Unpredictable external environment
"From the external environment, the international financial crisis has bottomed out entities economies declined, the economy pick up signs of Western developed countries, the global economy next year will show a rebound to some extent." Gao Su-mei said, "However, global consumption is still very fragile , including the financial system, the market share. expected exports of industrial products in China in 2010 base year will be lower growth, but large-scale growth is not likely. "
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently released semi-annual "World Economic Outlook" predicts, as countries adopt expansionary fiscal and monetary policy to stimulate the demand and reduce uncertainty in financial markets and systemic risks, the global economy from negative growth to positive growth, global economic growth this year and next will be, respectively -1.1% and 3.1%.
Su-mei of the Chinese economy is too high outward, her electronic information industry, for example, China's electronic information industry, more than 60% of outward dependency. Over the past year, the electronic information industry export delivery value of negative growth, the national industrial added value of more than 13%, the electronic information industry was only 6.3%, lower than the national industry for nearly 7 percentage points. Is that in domestic electronic information industry output is too low, growth recovery, and poor momentum.
In addition, the foot in Europe and the United States economic crisis led to the rise of trade protectionism, the future of these countries also make use of intellectual property protection, technical barriers, green barriers to the implementation of trade protection. These will be around next year, the development of industry.
Appeal be sustained stimulus
The external environment is the steady rise of industrial economies as a reason for pulling high-Su-mei that domestic demand is also very important. Recently, many research institutions including experts, scholars, industry also are studying a specific stimulus to the end of the period has expired, next year will not be stable development. "From the perspective of the Ministry of Industry, policy stability should continue next year, there is still some room for expanding domestic demand." Gao Su-mei stressed.
Gao Su-mei said the pick-up policy dependence is increasing, due to financial crisis, sustained external demand market downturn, the growth of major economies mainly by government investment and policies to stimulate. Therefore, the growth of industrial economy is largely supported from the policy. Once the policies stimulate the emergence of progressive, the industrial growth momentum will be affected. Domestic investment growth rate has been high, the recent significant increase in the difficulty of expanding domestic demand, maintain a rapid growth next year, there are still some difficulties.
Industrial Economy To Stabilize In 2010 Called For A Steady Stimulus
By: wuwu
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