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March Of Import And Export Slowdown In The Fourth Quarter Kept A Continuous Variable

10 Administration of Customs released the first 8 months this year

, China's imports and exports . According to customs statistics , the first 8 months of this year , China's import and export value of 1.87558 trillion U.S. dollars , than the same period last year ( below) increased 40%. Exports 989.74 billion U.S. dollars , up 35.5% ; imports 885.84 billion U.S. dollars , up 45.5% ; trade surplus to 103.9 billion U.S. dollars , decreased by 14.6% .

Customs statistics show that in August a single month , China's import and export value of 258.57 billion U.S. dollars , up 34.7%. Of which exports 139.3 billion U.S. dollars , up 34.4% , 3.7 percentage points slower than the previous month ; imports 119.27 billion U.S. dollars , up 35.2% , 12.5 percentage points last month to upgrade ; month trade surplus of 20.03 billion U.S. dollars , from the previous month decreased 30.4% chain .

From May 's 48.5% , 43.9% in June to 38.1% in July , to 34.4% in August , China's monthly export growth rate has declined for three consecutive months .

Managing Director of Galaxy Securities , said Zuo Xiaolei , chief economist , export growth and foreign demand, the market is related to the second quarter of this year recovery in the U.S. and Europe there are uncertainties, although the view of the foreign trade order is usually up to three months , the impact of the current Also failed to appear .


Europe and the United States is not optimistic about the fourth quarter recovery in exports of worrying

Zuo Xiaolei that " unemployment rate of growth in the United States and the European sub-prime crisis , or to force a new round of stimulus plan, the stimulus it can effectively help the consumer , the Christmas season can continue to promote the import of factors --- the fourth quarter of China's exports Uncertainty . "

Guangdong 's imports and exports accounting for about a quarter of the total , Guangdong Foreign Economic and Trade Office who said that according to the Office survey results indicate that the current export momentum of foreign trade enterprises in Guangdong Province is obviously insufficient , "especially this month , U.S. and European economic Slow pace of recovery , consumption weak , resulting in widespread decline orders . "

Agency official to grasp the situation and similar projections . CITIC Securities analyst , said Jian-Fang Chu , export growth dropped mainly by Europe and the United States fiscal tightening effect , expected export growth this year will be 28%. The import of base effects and the lagged effect of the production orders are expected to remain in good condition . Import growth is expected this year will be 32% , the annual surplus and the same as last year , reaching about 190 billion U.S. dollars .

However, the National School of Administration Policy Consulting , a research fellow Wang Xiaoguang believes that China's export growth remained strong and a little more than expected , estimated at 150 billion annual trade surplus -1,600 million. He also forecast that , by the base effect last year , export growth rate will drop 10 percent .

Major trading partner with bilateral trade in the first 8 months of this year , total bilateral trade between China and the EU 305.81 billion U.S. dollars , up 36.2%. Over the same period , bilateral trade was 242.61 billion U.S. dollars worth , up 32%. The total value of bilateral trade between China and Japan, 186.89 billion U.S. dollars , up 34.8% .

Zuo Xiaolei said , "can be certain that the import and export situation this year certainly better than last year , the surplus growth in contribution to economic growth is about 0.5% . "

Rising pressure of RMB appreciation China-US trade surplus increases

China's Ministry of Commerce officials again reiterated that China does not pursue surplus in foreign trade , trade balance is the goal of China's development of foreign trade .

General Administration of Customs released data show that China's trade surplus narrowed in August to 20.03 billion U.S. dollars ; the first 8 months of trade surplus for the 103.9 billion U.S. dollars . It is noteworthy that China's foreign trade surplus in Sino-US trade surplus accounted for 90% of the total , accounting for about two-thirds more in July significantly increased the level .

Between China 's huge trade surplus means that the U.S. Government's slow pace of appreciation of the renminbi may not ease the disappointment , so the U.S. Congress may legislate on the so-called China's control of the behavior of the exchange rate sanctions . Earlier, the U.S. House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee Chairman Carl Levin, has announced that the Commission plans to Sept. 15 hearing on the issue of RMB exchange rate will be .


From the China Foreign Exchange Trade Center 's latest figures show 10, the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar reported 6.7625 , 6.7817 the previous trading day higher than 192 basis points , hit a new high since the exchange reform .

Spreads China expert , said the Chinese government in June announced a high profile will be more flexible RMB exchange rate , the RMB has not appreciated significantly , Washington is very unhappy . He believes that such sentiments may be in the next week, the Senate and House of Representatives held a series of hearings on the RMB exchange rate reflected , and will continue until November at the American pre-selection phase of mid-term elections .

However, the Chinese central bank governor , Assistant Li Dongrong recently in Beijing to attend the first Forum on China's financial development referred to the yuan exchange rate , said China needs to increase the flexibility of RMB exchange rate , but the need to strengthen the macro- prudential and prevent systemic risk.

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