NFL Predictions: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers

NFL Predictions: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers

As we get into the second half of the 2010 season, NFL predictions become more difficult. This may seem counterintuitive, since the increase of in-season data should make the prediction process easier, but in actuality the increase in information makes it more difficult to distinguish important data from meaningless stats. One of the more common pitfalls is putting too much significance on a team's win/loss record, and ignoring in the process the context of those wins and losses. In terms of NFL Predictions, it's paramount that one dig deeper as the season progresses.

On paper, this week's matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) and the San Francisco 49ers (3-6) appears lopsided, but a closer look reveals some startling similarities. For starters, looking at the final margin of victory, each team has been involved with a lot of close contests. For the Niners, 4 of their 6 losses have come by a total of 11 points, while for the Bucs, 4 of their 6 wins have come by a total of 10 points. So while both teams are very young, and susceptible to making mistakes of inexperience, it seems like the Bucs have a knack for finishing close games while the Niners have a knack of coming up just a little short.

What's caused two young, inexperienced teams with roughly the same talent level to have two vastly different seasons to date? Well, in retrospect it's easy to see whycoaching. While the Bucs have been on the same page since Day 1 with head coach Raheem Morris mentioned prominently as a Coach of the Year candidate, the Niners have had one mini-drama after another, leading 3 players to quit the team, the offensive coordinator to be fired, and the starting quarterback to be benched, all amongst rumblings that head coach Mike Singletary is simply unqualified to be an NFL coach. That said, Singletary and the Niners seem like they may have righted the ship mid-season.

The promotion of Mike Johnson to offensive coordinator and former Heisman winner Troy Smith to starting QB has energized the offense and brought a renewed sense of confidence and swagger amongst playmakers such as Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree, culminating in wins in 3 of their last 4 games. Prediction: 49er QB Troy Smith is 2-0 since taking over as the starter, and the offense had more big plays in last 2 weeks than it had in first 7 games combined. Given his lack of snaps and overall playing time in the NFL, Tampa Bay will have little game film to game plan against, and may get caught off guard against somebody who shown a flair for turning broken plays into big gains.

With starting tackle Joe Staley out with a broken leg, the Bucs have an opening to put pressure on the inexperienced Smith, though Tampa has only managed 8 sacks through 9 games. Even if they can't sack Smith, Tampa has shown quite a knack for forcing interceptions, and could be successful forcing Smith into mistakes As a team that wants to establish the run and protect a young QB, the Niners should have an easy time establishing a ground game against the 31st ranked run defense in the NFL, especially if they continue to mix up the run and pass as well as they have recently.

On the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay will attempt to attack the Niners over the air, and will look to take advantage of TE Kellen Winslow against San Francisco's young safeties, a group that has shown a susceptibility to give up big plays over the top. While the Bucs have a good stable of young, tough runners, look for the 49ers to stop the run, as they've limited teams to a 93 yds/game in the last 4 weeks. 49ers win 23-20 on a late FG.

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