Netpicks 2011 Market Outlook Webinar Transcript Part 4
2011 NetPicks Market Outlook
2011 NetPicks Market Outlook
Transcript Part 4 of 7
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Next page. So right now what Im looking at besides what Im trading now, Im really interested in trading -- going back to the bonds like and Im looking at the 377 tick chart. Starting at -- right now, Im looking at the same time as crude oil around 8:50. Still trying to tweak that so Im foretasting that then I know TJ is looking at something and we can -- maybe we compare notes and see how were doing. But the last couple of days, its over a grand in trading one of two contracts, one trail so its looking pretty good. Im also going to be looking at trading the Spyders and the Qs trading options by actually putting the options symbol on the chart. And you have to be a TradeStation platform owner to do this and I dont know if any of these guys out there have tried to do this or not.
But what you do is you follow up 195-minute Q chart, default settings for the SST, and then you follow up a TradeStation option analysis window and then you linked them. And then -- and also you want -- you want to have another two charts open, one with the actual Qs open and the 195-minute, and then click on in the money strike price typically the front month. I try to go maybe four weeks out and youll find that the in the money option will trade almost identical to the 195-minute underlying Q chart. And Im using that for actually just trading that symbol using the SST. And if you people out there that have a -- and I dont have an example because I dont -- I didnt take control but I could have but well be maybe exploring that maybe in the trade room or but its really an interesting way to trade an option symbol just like the underlying vehicle so thats something Im looking at. The problem with that, though, is you cant back test it. Theres no historical data. So Im forward testing it now and seeing how that goes.
And also, Im looking at swing trading, the agriculturals. And thats something I got on the back burner but Im liking what I see and thats kind of what Im doing. I dont have any big position except for I have one Super Bowl prediction. Its going to be Green Bay and New England with Super Bowl and Green Bay is going to upset them.
Mark Soberman: You meant Green Bay and the Jets?
Keith McKenzie: I mean no. No, New England.
Mark Soberman: Okay.
Keith McKenzie: Sorry bud.
Mark Soberman: Yeah, right. Wishful thinking Mark but a couple of questions for you. Anthony is asking, Is it very difficult to keep to your plan? So obviously, you got a variety of different things youre doing here, is it really difficult to stay with it or stick to it?
Keith McKenzie: No.
Mark Soberman: Good enough. Theres a couple of questions -- thats the answer -- on wheat, I want to know where the wheat plan is or was? I believe theres -- isnt it in the replay of our annual meeting? Is that right, Brian?
Brian Short: Its also TJ has it posted in the owners club.
Mark Soberman: Okay, the SST owners club.
Brian Short: Yes.
Mark Soberman: Okay, great. Let me see what else we have here in the questions. Pete says, Keith, your wheat plan was up over 75%, why would you drop it to look at other things or have you dropped it or whats that?
Keith McKenzie: I -- its in the bull pen of simplifying things. If you look at what -- you know, Im a -- I dont want to brag or anything like that, but that silver and crude is just -- its just -- its giving me a large percent wins. And by 10:30 comes along Ill just -- Im looking to go on and do other things. So thats just kind of a way Ive -- its more of just keeping myself more simple and I think right now two markets. That wheat, it takes a lot of concentration and Im ready to just keep that in the back burner at the top -- at the stock.
Mark Soberman: Yeah, its a good reminder, you know, because a lot of us keep talking about how were trying to finish this early as possible. Its exactly how the way I look. I mean Im just -- I just want to be done. I want to be positive and when we look at people who are struggling, they want to trade four or five or six hours a day so kind of think about that.
Keith McKenzie: Right. Thats -- and its almost goes with Wills minimalist approach.
Mark Soberman: Sure.
Keith McKenzie: And I -- even though Im -- I have to admit, Im addicted to trading and here I am. Im talking about but you probably see me in the room saying, Yeah, I did this. I did that, and I guess its -- theres nothing wrong with that but because I do have a plan, I can work it in many times.
Mark Soberman: Great. What exchange -- I can remember wheats, soybeans or is that SIMI or is that CBOT?
Keith McKenzie: C --
Mark Soberman: CBOT, right?
Keith McKenzie: CBOT.
Mark Soberman: Okay. The next question --
Keith McKenzie: Actually, its -- I think its all in one now but you have to subscribe to the CBOT. Yes, you do have to subscribe to the CBOT or you have to get all the -- its the $61.
Mark Soberman: Okay. That will cover the --
Keith McKenzie: The data fee.
Mark Soberman: Great.
Keith McKenzie: Thats --
Mark Soberman: Okay. I surely appreciate that, Keith. So Bob, you are next. Do you need me to show your slides or do you want me to give you control.
Bob Malinowski: Sure. Why dont you go ahead and show mine, thatd be easier.
Mark Soberman: Okay. There you go.
Bob Malinowski: Okay. Mark and Brian asked us to you know, make some predictions and talk about what worked and what didnt work. And so, I decided just to take a look at CNBC had predicted for the last year because I find these predictions, often times, dont meet reality. But, you know, just very briefly here, with some of the financial components for say in treasury yields at fall this year and they did. They did fall this year but they went back up again. So there is a prediction which you could say was a, you know, you know, came an apparition or maybe didnt but, you know, the same treasury yields for fall for the year 2010. They did. They want back up.
CNBC also predicted that the U.S. dollar would explode higher and it didnt go up the first half of the year but then it went back down during the second half of the year. Fast Money had predicted that gold prices would topple to $900 an ounce. That one just didnt happen at all as you see no gold is up around $1,400 an ounce. Stocks would drop by 10% in the first half of 2010. Well, they did. They dropped by about 10.5%. That was a pretty much a right on prediction from CNBC but then it went up 24% for the second half of 2010. They didnt predict that particular move.
This prediction here, the utilities are best performing sector in the U.S. stock mark -- in 2010. Well, utilities are essentially flat for the year and gold stocks which was supposed to be the worst performing group, actually did quite well as Brian said up, you know, 33% for the year. The second half of the year, CNBC predicted that GDP would turn flat. Well, it didnt turn flat. At the third quarter, we had a 2.6% growth and for the fourth quarter the numbers are not in yet but theyre looking on 2.2% so were still looking at some positive growth.
The next chart, Brian, the last two predictions of CNBC Fast Money had, you just flip to that next one. The first one -- there we go. I think I have one more chart there.
Mark Soberman: Do you want me to go to the next one here?
Bob Malinowski: Yeah, you can just go to the next.
Mark Soberman: Sorry about that by that.
Bob Malinowski: Yeah. Tiger Woods would make a comeback. They predicted that theyd be -- hell reconcile with his wife and his popularity would rise to record levels and sounds like, you know, some stock market predictions. And the final prediction was a weakened Republican Party in disarray. My only point here is I dont try to predict anymore. I used to do it. I listen to these pundits all the time. I listen to Mark and Brian and Will and they are much, much more on the mark than any of these fellows that you will see in the popular financial press or in the financial media.
What I like to do is I like to follow a proven system with an edge and let it tell me where to place my trade and where to get out and not try to predict. Its really good to have some basic ideas like Brian looks at his silver market. You can look at the chart and say, Look, silver is going up. Im going to trade silver but Im only going to take long trades because, you know, we see a trend going up. The first prediction for the year 2011, I tried to stay out of the prediction and I just let the charts do the talking and I let the systems with an edge give me that edge. And Im also onboard with, everyone youve heard so far this presentation about simplifying. I have traded the UMT, the AT, the HVMM. I love them all. Systems all give a nice positive edge. But, for me, this year, Im going to be focusing primarily on the SST because I find it easier for all the stress that is involved in trading to not have too many systems trading at the same time.
So Im going to be primarily using the SST and Im going to be diversifying by market and by time frame. So Ill be trading the crude oil, the silver and the Russell as far as day trading futures, do stock and ETF trading with the options that Mike and I have been putting together with the options live course from 130-minute chart. And then this year, Im going to do something new for Forex. Most of you I see 70% like to trade Forex. I have not really done a whole lot of Forex cash trading. This year Im going to look at some swing trades in the Forex market, start looking at some of those Forex markets where I could do some swing trading.
Again, trading where Ive got an option to take my time in these setups and not be sitting in front of the computer all day long. And so thats my goal for the year, simplify, focus on SST, diversify by market and timeframe, and let the charts do the talking. And thats my summary.
Mark Soberman: Great. Thanks, Bob. We appreciate that. So next up we have Shane. So Shane are you all set? Do you want me to hand it off to you?
Shane Daly: ______ [0:56:49]. Well, if you just want to do the charts like the PowerPoint for me.
Mark Soberman: Here we go.
Shane Daly: Do you have the PowerPoint that I have there?
Mark Soberman: Give me a second and Ill --
Shane Daly: Sure.
Mark Soberman: -- move up here real quick. I kind of have a lot of these cut and pasted in, so let me pull yours up real quick.
Shane Daly: Okay. If its easier doing that way or you just want to hand it off, whatever is easier, faster.
Mark Soberman: Ill tell you in about 15 seconds. Let me see here. Okay, 2011 PPT here we go. Okay.
Shane Daly: Thats mine. And while Mark is doing that, Ill set for me. Let me tell you right now, Im on the same boat as everybody else, you know, minimalist trading, you know, going back over last year and making things easier for myself. You know, we all get into trading, you know, for our own reasons but one of the reasons I did was -- I wanted more free time. You know, I dont want to be glued in front of the monitor.
And so this year is something Im looking a little bit different and Im sure that my market outlook and I dont have one much like everybody else. I just -- theres so many variables that go into having an outlook. And as Bob just showed you, most of the times theyre wrong and, you know for me, Im a situational-type trader. You know, the charts are going to show you whats out there. Your strategy is going to show you whats out there. You stick to your rules, right? Thats what we have control over as traders and -- yeah, Im not smart enough to decide for all the fundamentals of the world, Im just not.
I went to college. Took Economics like these guys when I was in college course and I just read the books and I actually left because they werent teaching anything you can read in a textbook. And we can see, you know, it doesnt matter what you predict. It doesnt matter what you think. All you need is one word from someone like Timothy Geithner and the market plunges. We saw it happened, you know, 400 points the market falls.
You know, so hanging your hat on your predictions is, my own opinion, is not a smart way to go and nevertheless, you know, we all have this thing inside of us that we dont want to be wrong, right? So how many times have you held on to or believe about something youre being proven wrong but you dont want to, you know, admit it. And we all have that at times so we just, you know, just something as simple as not getting out of a trade when you should have a long time ago. So I understood what works for me. Ill get a little more into that in a minute. And I think my positions have shown up and with my proper risk percentage. Im not going to be afraid to get out when the trade is not working, right? That where my control lies.
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by: John Jay
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