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Numbers that matters in sports wagering

The final score in any professional sports game never tells the whole story

. Your

job as a bettor is to get a full sense of what a team's character is like, and that is

something that can never be summed up in the scores that you see scrolling along the

bottom of your television. In addition to reading game recaps and watching a team play,


the following statistics are important to look for when gauging whether a team is a

worthy investment:

1. Momentum Once a team gets on a roll, do they keep it going? Conversely, if a

team gets scored against, will they get flustered and be scored against a few times

in a row before the bleeding stops? Or will they buckle down and look for an

equalizer immediately?

For the NBA, most news sources do a good job of mentioning significant gamechanging

runs by each team in their game recaps. Although points are easy to come by in

basketball, giving up a game-changing 20-0 run, for instance, can be a huge morale

breaker for a team and can put them in an insurmountable hole. Be careful of teams that

get in the habit of having to crawl out of such holes to win games.

2. How points are scored Scoring summaries and game recaps should give you an

idea of how a team puts points on the board. Don't think for a minute that all

points are equal-just because points count for the same values does not mean that

the implications are the same for the serious sports bettor.

This is particularly evident in baseball. Before someone bets on a starting pitcher, he

should be familiar with how runs have been scored against that pitcher. If a pitcher is

credited with one earned run against him in an inning, he may have thrown well and

struck out three batters, but left one bad pitch up over the plate and given up a home

run. Compare this pitcher with another pitcher credited with one earned run, but who

gave up a long double, walked someone, gave up another single to load the bases, and

hit a batter to bring in the run. While the two pitchers have the same number of runs

against, it's clear who the smarter one to wager on is.

In football, look at whether a team prefers to run the ball or throw the ball, and

compare these numbers with their upcoming opponents' defense against the run and

the pass. If you find you've got a great running team against a team that defends well

against passes but is weak on the ground, for instance, you may consider making a

wager.

3. When points are scored Often the final score doesn't give one team full credit

over the other. By tracking score changes throughout the game, you can get a

sense of whether the outcome of the game was ever really in question.

How many times have you heard the expressions "this game was closer than the final

score indicated" or "don't let the final score fool you; (team x) wasn't ever really

threatened in this one"? This is what you have to be careful to watch out for. If two

football teams engage in a hard- fought, back-and- forth battle, and one team ekes out a

gritty three-point win on a last second field goal, it says a lot more about the character

of both teams than if the game is a blowout, one team has held a comfortable tenpoint

cushion and has been playing reserves for the whole second half, and the losing

team happens to close the gap to three on a last-minute touchdown. In the second

instance, the final score gives the losing team more credit than they are due, and you

should by no means assume that they will ever be within such a slim margin of other

good teams.

Look at when in the games teams like to score points. Is one basketball team

known for their ability to "turn it on" in the fourth quarter? Does another team rely on a

big first half and then hope that the cushion is enough to outlast their opponents and win?

A key stat that should be emphasized is how teams fare late in the game. Entering

the fourth quarter down by 15, most basketball teams will buckle and call it a night. Even

if they come up short, the teams that work feverishly to close the gap are the teams you

want to keep in mind when you're wagering. Their "heart" and refusal to roll over will

overwhelm less committed teams, and when these plucky teams enter the fourth quarter

in a close game or with a lead, you can count on them usually pulling out the victory.

Naturally, the stats that count the most will vary from sport to sport. However, by

adopting these approaches into your betting strategies, you can go beyond the box score


and give yourself the Inside Advantage over your competition.

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Numbers that matters in sports wagering

By: Sam Jones
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