Online And Mobile Music Spins And Media Spend: 2010 - 2012
Online and mobile music listening (including individual track plays) are forecast
to rise 15% in 2010 to 8.3 billion hours, a year after the radio webcasting business underwent a significant round of consolidation. Despite brand contraction, time spent listening spun out a 9% increase in 2009. Total listening hours are forecast to expand 22% in 2011 building on a more sound economic foundation in 2010. Online and Mobile Music Spins and Media Spend: 2010 2012 provides comprehensive music listening and media spend analyses by avail type (audio, video, rich media, sponsorships and text) and platform (PC and mobile). Extensive Q & As are included. An evaluation of advertising supported listening (excluding Shoutcast and paid subscriptions) reveals a 5% drop in monetizable inventory in 2009 as large, pure-play services Yahoo Radio and AOL Radio were folded into CBS Radio, while independent operators grappled with royalty rate structures assessed against audience size. Ad supported listening hours are forecast to improve 20% in 2010, however, as inventory sellout rates continue to rise, royalty rates slightly more favorable to smaller operators are reset and mobile platforms achieve greater scale. Audio and video ad sales made up approximately 50% of total media spend made against Internet radio, generating market value of $168 - $190 million in 09 including all paid placement, from banners to rich media executions. Sellout is forecast to reach 55% and generate $135 million in 2010 (audio and video media buys alone), a 41.6% growth spike; the market grew by 13.9% in 2009. The current years estimates acknowledge much greater emphasis being made by terrestrial broadcasters with online extensions to implement a highly localized sales strategy. In addition, more sophisticated geo-targeting solutions, better national sales execution and bundled solutions provided by third party representation firms like TargetSpot and Triton Media--plus the emerging mobile platformpoint toward a solid growth year. Mobile music media spend is forecast at $6.7 million in 2010.
TABLE OF CONTENTS:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1
Online Music Radio: Listening Growth Profile 2004 - 2009 1
Shoutcast Annual Listening Hours: 2005 - 2009 1
Consolidation within the ad supported webcaster segment reduced monetizeable listening hours by 5.4% in 2009 1
Growth In Ad Supported Monthly Listening Hours: 2005-2012 2
Pandora is the leading online music provider (excluding Shoutcast) 2
Gross media spend (audio/video/mobile avails) sold against listening hours is forecast at $135 million in 2010 2
Mobile Music Advertising Revenue Mix: 2008 2012 3
SECTION ONE 4
Macro Market Growth and Revenue Trend Summary: 4
Total Listening Hour and Ad Supported Listening Hour Totals Comparative Analysis: 2005-2010 4
Online Music Radio: Listening Growth Profile 2004 - 2009 7
Online Music Listening Hour Comparison: 2004 2009 7
Shoutcast Listening Hour Growth: Annual Totals 2005 - 2009 7
Online Listening Hour Growth: 2005 - 2009 8
Online Music Listening Hour Growth History and Forecast: 20042 9
Mobile Music Advertising Revenue Estimates: 2008 - 2012 10
Internet Music Listening Hours: Streaming Radio Stations and Track Plays by Month 2009 11
SECTION TWO 25
Brand and platform share: Shoutcast remains the dominant online listening platform 25
Time Spent Listening Share: 2009 26
Time Spent Listening: Aggregated Brand Analysis 2009 30
Pandora is the leading online music provider (excluding Shoutcast) 32
Time Spent Listening: Aggregated Brand Analysis 2009 33
Internet Music Radio Database 2009 Full Year: Stations, Track Play Hours 35
SECTION THREE 56
Online and mobile music radio spins and media spend: 2010 - 2012 56
Online Music Listening Hour Growth History And Forecast: 2004 - 2012 56
Consolidation within the ad supported webcaster segment reduced monetizeable listening hours by 5.4% in 2009 57
Monetizable Listening Hours: 2005 - 2012 58
The downward slide of ad supported listening hours (as a percent of total listening hours) is forecast to stabilize over the next three years 59
Monthly Ad Supported Listening Hour Comparison: 2005 - 2012 59
Online and Mobile Music Advertising Spend: 2003 - 2012 61
Gross Media Spend: Online Music Radio 2003 - 2012 63
Mobile music advertising forecast at $6.7 million in 2010 65
Online Music Radio Advertising Forecasts: Audio, Video, Mobile 66
Mobile Music Advertising Revenue Estimates: 2008 - 2012 68
Online radio reaches 17% of the population, with an estimated media sales maturity comparable of 3.6% in 2009 69
Market Maturity Comparative Analysis: GRP Pro Forma 70
Royalty rate conundrum: Flat rate vs. track spins per average listening audience 71
Hybrid Terrestrial/Online Music Radio Advertising Market Value: 2009 Comparative Analysis 72
Online Music Radio Royalty Payment Analysis: 2009 73
Additional issues: There isnt one body or organization representing the webcaster community as a group in royalty negotiations 73
SECTION FOUR 74
Q&A 74
ENTERCOM 74
CITADEL BROADCASTING 77
PANDORA 81
RADIOIO 85
TARGETSPOT 88
TRITON MEDIA/TRITON DIGITAL MEDIA 93
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