Potash Demand The End Of 2009 V-recovery Can Be Expected - Potash, Fertilizer - Chemical Industry

Dry kill K U-3-quarter demand for restoration: 3 years of wheat procurement policy

to reverse the "preferential agricultural policy" failures, by the end of July to promote the fall season with a fertilizer such as potash fertilizer market warming, but a national drought hit farmers buy fertilizer recovery in late August K back in the doldrums after the transaction. 3-quarter sales of the company potassium chloride increased by 2.5 times the chain to 33 million tonnes, but still only 6 percent normal volume, as E PS The main reason for only 0.19 yuan. And down the chain on sales and market practical situation. Abnormal result in the fall once again demand and prices for fall and back part of the contract price adjustment, three-quarter average realized price including tax is about 2610 yuan / ton (including 20 thousand tons of 57% of low potassium chloride). Potassium chloride transport in advance to the Eastern market, the corresponding result in freight and warehousing costs Sell Cost remains high, hysteresis current VAT return (excluding value added tax EPS impact of about 0.25 yuan), and further down the performance.

Inevitable rebound of K fertilizer farmers next year: drought, Financial crisis And policy factors such as the failure end-use of fertilizer decreased the peasants; and dealers continued losses caused panic, loss of reservoir function of the seasonal adjustment of chemical fertilizers, delayed up inventory. Potassium current issues: the amount to restore the price, rather than the amount of price determination. Since the beginning of the demand based on the effective tracking of the agricultural, fertilizer, crop demand for unusual factors that the "real" cuts and price increases continued upward momentum, has been confirmed for the market. For inputs down, grain yield has been better at home and abroad, introduction of domestic agricultural support policies, and international crop prices continued to rise steadily to dispel concerns about fluctuations in income farmers, fertilizer prepared by spring next year, a quarter of the demand for domestic end-point recovery .

Demand before the end of K V-recovery can be expected. Although still weak demand, imports declined significantly in 2009, so the overall stock of domestic potash fertilizer down, the current total inventory decreased port from 920,000 to 1,690,000 tons. Qinghai potash fertilizer production in September over the previous year and the chain fell 26% and 30% (pre-production of high-K low-grade small start, run out of raw materials and the early cut-off), announced ahead of the winter shutdown. Before next spring if no imports over 5 million tons potash stocks hard, supply worrying. International supplier of real cut of more than 32% of annual production, and will continue, North America stock dropped straight in March; the current speed and Southeast Asia, Brazil soybean planting stocks decline, demand will soon rebound. Concern imports of potassium chloride in China the new price is much higher than the current downturn will inevitably reflected in the price of transactions. Thus, by the end of the potash fertilizer dealer price fluctuations, "panic" Psychological expected to disappear, the domestic market will start up inventory, potassium chloride prices will rebound.

by: gaga

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