Probabilities Rule in Poker
Probabilities Rule in Poker
Probabilities Rule in Poker
Happy Thanksgiving Day to all of us living in the United States. I must say, I have a great deal to be thankful for on this (and every other) day for sure. One of those things I am thankful for is simply the fact that my education included a great deal of work in statistical analysis and probability theory. It makes me a better poker player.
One of the things that I know for an absolute fact is that probabilities will hold up in the long term. Over the past few days I have been crushed holding AA, KK and QQ. I have lost hands to draws in which my opponent was priced out but came along anyway. I found myself on the short end of a full house twice and I have been the small straight and small flush several times. Oh woe is me? No, it just happens.
Random Events and Probability
If there is one constant it is simply that the universe is a very large random number generator. Events are predictable and constant, falling within a standard range of occurrence. This is as true for, say, star formation as it is for poker hands. Knowing this, I am armed with an anti-tilt machine. When I am loosing to hands that probabilities say I ought to win with more often than not, I am merely facing the negative end of the probability that any given event will occur. If AA will win 85% of the time then it goes without saying that it will lose 15% of the time. There is just no getting around this simple truth.
Poker is a Streaky Game
During the past few days I found myself on the short end of the probability continuum. Loosing hands I should have won, thereby reducing my overall bankroll by a small percentage, is frustrating but it is also a significant part of the game. So I have a simple solution. Get up. Walk away. When loosing because you are in a streak in which the probabilities are working in favor of someone else for whatever reason, there is no sense in sitting there and taking it.
I generally find that when probabilities aren't working in my favor the very worst thing I can do is decide that I must make up lost ground right now. Loosing in the short run is inevitable. By trying to overcome losses while on a loosing streak is one of the roads to disaster. I work hard to recognize the streak and just stop playing for a while, perhaps a few hours, perhaps a day or two. When I decide to return more often than not the planets are once again aligned and things are working exactly as they should be working.
Playing against Donkeys
Whether I am winning or loosing my post session routine never changes. I review my play, looking at key hands. I decide whether or not I could have played the hand differently. I look at my opponent's play. What mistakes did I make, what mistakes did my opponent make. By engaging in this simple, but very necessary, routine, I am able to seek out and identify leaks in my game.
When playing online I connect to Poker Tracking Software such as Hold'em Manager, a program that automatically records and analyzes every hand played during any given session. I even get a heads up display showing real time statistics about my opponents during play. By analyzing my play and my opponent's play I see where I played like a donkey and where my opponents played like donkeys.
No Crying in Baseball (or Poker)
Careful analysis of my play makes my game transparent to me. For example, the other day I was in a hand where I made a club flush on the flop with JcTc in my hand. I decided to slow-play this hand when I should have pushed hard. I was in the cutoff and my opponent was two seats to my right. I was in position. He checked the flop as did I. My mistake. I should never have given him a free card here. The turn was a blank. He checked and I decided once again to check. Stupid me! Another free card pealed off, the Qc. My opponent checked once more and I decided to make a small value bet, about 30% of the pot. He insta-called and turned over Ac3s. I fell victim to FPS or Fancy Play Syndrome when I should have priced him out on the flop and taken the pot down then and there. I made a note to myself to play straight-forward poker thereby avoiding FPS as a leak in my game.
Over time, with solid play, the probabilities in poker always rule. One can subvert probability by making fancy plays, calling when priced out of a hand, or making other mistakes, or you can play solidly and still be the victim of probability working against you. The only way to know for sure is to dig deeply into your game and analyze the heck out of it.
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