Projections of future market encouraging signs of urea - urea, exports - the chemical industry

Projections of future market encouraging signs of urea - urea

, exports - the chemical industry

In light storage start-up and market sentiment improved the situation for some time urea market is expected to a certain degree of improvement, but not likely to substantially improved, mainly due to the current serious excess urea production capacity is still very obvious phenomenon .

In the second half, especially after September, the most important factor affecting urea market is the short storage. Light from the nearest reservoir will be informed of Jinan, 2009 ~ 2010 annual national fertilizer storage contract start fresh this year, the total reserves remain at 16 million tons of fertilizer. Of these, approximately 800 million tons of urea and the rest to P Mainly, but individual businesses can operate K Light storage. Chengchuqiye basic continuation of last year, and will increase this year, NDRC said Dan Chu supervision.

National Fertilizer short meeting and signing certificates, marks the fertilizer storage will be fully light, which is obviously positive urea market. Because of short storage of fertilizer each year are accounted for the bulk of urea, at least in light of the total reserves of 50% of the fertilizer. Reserves of urea this year, 800 short tons, the equivalent of one half of the national production of urea. Another light in the national fertilizer storage started, provincial and even county level where chemical fertilizers are also expected to start light storage, such as Yunnan province recently announced that this year will continue to implement the provincial short 100,000 tons of fertilizer storage. Light savings starts, will effectively ease the contradiction between supply and demand market of urea, urea market will play a good stabilizing effect.

Recent market sentiment improved. Overall, the current urea market has basically spent the most difficult time, markets have a slight turn a good sign. In particular, on September 16 transferred to the export tariffs on 110%, the urea price in general is relatively stable, and no significant drop in market confidence has increased, coupled with the current price of urea is absolutely low cost of production support, in October, and winter wheat Other factors such as fall and winter crops, fertilizer, Urea dealers bullish market outlook up relatively more.

However, the recent sharp upturn urea market unlikely, mainly due to the current situation of oversupply of urea production capacity is still very evident. According to N Association statistics, in excess nitrogen fertilizer production capacity has been a serious situation, the domestic production of new projects are still frequent. As of now, plans new capacity this year, production reached 4.58 million tons of urea, compared with 2.85 million tons in 2008 new production capacity has increased by 60.7%. Nitrogen fertilizer industry into a more excess capacity the more the cycle of expansion. In addition, despite the current low prices of urea, most of the urea companies have losses, but the real cut-off cut of the enterprises are not many, the urea industry still maintained a 80% higher operating rates, which will restrict urea prices higher .

Historical trends from the urea market, look for two years (2004 and 2007) urea prices rose sharply in the second half of the movement, its causes are causing a significant increase in urea exports of the domestic source of supply, driving up domestic prices by To. Since October this year, implementation of 110% urea exports are still high tariffs and low international urea market conditions, relying on exports to boost domestic market, this situation would not exist.

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