Pvc Continued To Be Digested Multiple Negative Oscillation In A Downward-pvc, Steel, Building

The case of Goldman Sachs since mid-April outbreak

, Dalian PVC offer sustained oscillation decline, from 8,000 yuan at the top of the high points down to 7,600 yuan in the vicinity of the low. Entered in May by the upstream raw material prices higher, PVC manufacturers and other factors offer strong, PVC decline slowed. In addition, changing external market and domestic market interest rate expectations clouds dispersed, and difficult to effectively enlarge the market end demand and other factors limit the market's stabilized to the good. Therefore, the recent market downturn will continue oscillating trend, but there is a big line in 7600 yuan support.

External market turmoil continued. Since the Greek debt crisis, the impact of escalating. And by the end of April, Standard & Poor's lowered by Portugal, Greece and Spain's credit rating, the market began to worry about the debt crisis of Greece may spread to other countries in financial crisis, concerns about European economic prospects for further spread in the capital markets, which led to European and American stock markets fell across the board and the domestic commodity market has fallen sharply. Current EU member states have signed a total of 750 billion euros of rescue mechanism to help the euro area might fall into the debt crisis member. The short-term relief of this scheme, though the market further spread of the debt crisis of the Greek concerns, but long term, this does not once and for all, the market prospects of the euro-zone economic fears are not entirely dispersed.

Domestic front, the deposit reserve rate increases and long-term central voting issue have shown that monetary stimulus is being phased out. From May 11 macroeconomic data released in April of view, CPI2.8% gain despite the 3.0% ceiling is not broken, but still hit 18-month high, market interest rates in the second quarter expectations further enhanced, which will affect the commodity market 56 months is an important psychological factor trend. Meanwhile, the recent intensive real estate market regulation policy on the PVC market introduction resulted in significant psychological impact, PVC of price pressure to bear a larger correction.

PVC spot market from the domestic point of view, the recent upstream raw material prices continue to move up the PVC market is strong support for the main reason. Although international oil prices continue to fall after entering in May, but no noticeable drag down Asia's ethylene, ethylene prices to maintain the current CFR Southeast Asia in 1250 U.S. dollars / ton, CFR Northeast Asian ethylene maintained at 1300 U.S. dollars / ton in the vicinity. Domestic calcium carbide, because of recent governments to strictly enforce the elimination of backward production policy, coupled with cancellation of preferential rates in some provinces, resulting in calcium carbide production costs rising, reducing supply of goods, to promote the recent rising price of calcium carbide. In addition, due to the upcoming summer peak electric power, will be subject to certain restrictions, as power-hungry industry, calcium carbide production will be affected. Therefore, the current market situation of shortage of calcium carbide will be difficult to ease, calcium carbide will continue to maintain high prices.

Supported by the upstream raw materials, PVC manufacturer tough stance on price, limited production price has become the consensus of the upstream manufacturers. At present, some companies stop device is completely state of the plant to maintain car Home improvement Rate of home starts more than 5? 6 percent, market sources of supply relative to the beginning balance and price stability for the market to create the conditions. The demand side, according to the writer's understanding of the downstream products in southern China signs of improved business starts, In addition, since the second half of the real estate new construction area of the PVC Building Materials Demand gradually appear, and is expected to usher in the six months late the concentration of PVC demand the release of some market confidence has been boosted.

All the above factors in view, the economic volatility of the euro zone countries, the domestic policy tightening is expected to continue to increase and other adverse factors need to be further digested the market, which determines the PVC market, the recent trend is hard for a breakthrough. However, the upstream firm prices of raw materials and PVC manufacturers of limited production price measures also limited the room for further decline of prices. Therefore, the short-term oscillations of price will remain in a downward direction, but supported by cost factors, price of 7600 yuan on the first line will have greater support forces. With the improvement of end demand, spot market is expected to end in six months out of the current stagflation situation, and bring prices back up on the channel.

by: gaga

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