Quickly Evaluate Form Cycles and Speed Figures to Find Horse Racing Winners

Quickly Evaluate Form Cycles and Speed Figures to Find Horse Racing Winners

Form cycles are one of the most misunderstood factors of horse racing. They not only vary from horse to horse and trainer to trainer, but they also vary through the years as a horse matures. For instance, a two year old horse and a three year old have different cycles, but not all that different because they are both maturing and getting faster and better, barring injuries or trainer incompetence.

But what of a seven year old horse? When we look at the par time for a race and see that a horse has never run to that par, should we disregard the horse? That depends on where it is in its cycle and how old it is. A nine year old gelding who has never run a 90 on the turf is not likely to run that today unless the trainer has made a startling discovery about the horse's health that has been overlooked throughout its career. That very rarely if ever happens.

On the other hand, if you have a three year old that is on its third or fourth race of its three year old season that has scored a 85, it is possible that it will run up to that 90 par. You still have to look back over its works and last races to determine how it is progressing or if it will regress or bounce a little, but it is possible. So for young horses look for continued improvement until they put forth that really big effort, then lay off a bit and let them recover.

For older horses, barring radical changes, say from a lousy trainer to a great one, consider their last three or four races as indicative of what you will see today. If a 5 year old's best time ever was a 88 then it might score that today or perhaps a little better because 5 year olds are usually peaking if they're sound. But don't expect any huge surprises.

That means there are two different line of thought. For young horses, expect change, usually an improvement until a big race and then a little regression. Eventually, it will come back and post another good race. For older horses, consistency is about the best you can hope for, though a decline in speed is to be expected over time.

Look at races with only two year olds or only three years differently than you look at races that include older horses.

POST COMMENT

Colin Hayes: Champion Horse Racing Trainer Never be too overwhelmed to see a horse Horse Drawn Hearse Show Jumps Require Strong And Speedy Horses Good Horse Tack How To Draw A Simple Horse In 7 Easy Steps Rider And Horse Trust Skill And Endurance Horse Racing Handicapping Angle Horses That Fade Now Going Longer How To Remove Trojan Horse Crypt - Beware! Interesting and Fun Facts on Horses What You Should Know About Rubber Horse Mats Horse Race Betting, Horse Handicappers, And Playing It Safe ? Never be too overwhelmed to see a horse