River Futures: Soybean Market Outlook, Or Shocks Up
Soybean market outlook or shock upstream
8 during the last week by strong exports and production uncertainties and other factors, CBOT soybean futures higher volatility, which in September contract appears strong because of tight supply rose for the week up 111 points to close at 1135.6 cents, in November contracts 33.2 points to close at 1011.0 cents. DCE soybean contract this week Tiaokonggaokai 1005, then enter the shock stage of prices, Friday recurring power upside, the week up 115 points to close at 3737. Looking forward, CBOT soybean contract to return to the main force in November 1000 near the fluctuations cents mark, is expected to rise in the market outlook will be the main shock, Dalian Beans Futures prices driven by the outer disc and the forthcoming "Double" Consumer season support, higher volatility is still the main tone, investors could be concerned about the following factors:
1, the macroeconomic context, last week's housing Sell Data, take a good, consumer confidence improved second quarter U.S. corporate profits increased significantly, the U.S. economy out of recession gradually towards recovery. Crude oil prices rise again, Wall Street turned upside 9,600 points, reversing the downturn in commodity markets, market conditions since last week. Need to maintain a weak dollar trend will continue to promote the influx of hedge funds and commodity stock market, metal prices rise, LME settlement price of 3.17% this week, up from last week, reported 6505 revenue, a record high during the year. Contrast, agricultural products (000,061, stock it), which CBOT soy futures rose more backward compared with other commodities, the value of depression significantly.
2, US-bean weather in August in the Midwest corn (information market) significantly increased with rainfall, the rainfall in some areas up to 2 times the normal level in previous years. The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture data show the progress of U.S. soybean pod than the 5-year average of 7 percentage points behind, Indiana, Missouri and Erie Noi backward state level from 14 percent to 22 percent range. Latest weather forecast from early this weekend to September, cold air from Canada will affect the Midwest, temperatures will drop about 2 degrees Celsius. In September as weather conditions on the new U.S. soybean yields are still critical to the unusual nature of the early frost may come before the end of crop growth, thereby affecting the soybean yields, the global soybean supply situation even more tense, the weather for the United States and beans provide much support for the potential benefits. Midwest agricultural sector ProFarmer annual inspection report, if the U.S. soybean growing season will end smoothly, U.S. soybean production is expected in 2009, 3.15 billion bushels, the forecast is lower than the U.S. Department of Agriculture in August reported 3.199 billion bushels.
3, U.S. soybean sales, Thursday the United States Department of Agriculture data show that the week ended Aug. 20, the new U.S. soybean sales of 1.97 million tonnes in 2009/2010, which sold 1.53 million tons to China, accounting for total sales 78% 4 weeks total export sales grew 440% over the previous year. As farmers in Argentina this weekend will launch a week-long strike, coupled with China's domestic soybean crushing business inventories low, Chinese imports will also be listed in the new soybeans continue to push before the CBOT soybean prices.
4, domestic soybeans, 27 countries held in temporary reserves soybean auction again, with Inner Mongolia, Jilin, temporary storage of all program trading countries, 100,000 tons of soybean and eventually all of Liu Pai; Heilongjiang plans to auction 300,000 tons, of which third-soybean 09,600 tons of transactions, average transaction price 3750 yuan / ton, accounting for 500,000 tons of total auction amount of 1.93%. Total domestic soybean spot prices steadily, which Harbin soybean spot price 3640-3680 yuan / ton; eastern Heilongjiang Price 3540-3600 yuan / ton, few remaining farmers, traders wait and see. Domestic port distribution of soybean import prices rose steadily closing 3730-3750 yuan, now Port stocks 4.8 million tons, the Ministry of Commerce of China forecast in August to 2.39 million tons of soybean Hong Kong, in September of domestic ports have tight soybean supplies. Domestic soybean meal (information, quotes), Bean oil (Information, quotes) pick the spot demand, oil plant quite heavy psychological price reluctant sellers, is expected to short-term whole bean market will continue strong.
Technical Analysis:
Technically,
River Futures: Soybean Market Outlook, Or Shocks Up
By: xt
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