Second Part Video Analysis On Ratings

Second Part Video Analysis On Ratings

Second Part Video Analysis On Ratings

A discussion between a CEO and a professional punter on how to do the rating sheet and being a ratings guru as well. DD: So when you're actually watching the video, what are you looking for other than the pace of the race and luck in running? I mean are you looking at things like the horse's galloping action? RG: Absolutely and with the advantage of head on shots at most televised events these days it is so much easier to do. I am looking for ungainly or extravagant actions, those who throw down poorly, lay in, lay out, hang, reef, pull or who have poor head carry.Humans have trouble breaking bad habits and horses are the same and those habits can be the difference between winning and running a close second. Poor actions lead to injury and injury leads to inconsistency.On the flipside those who race tractably with good actions and carry their head well who are on-pacers and are in a suitable event, these horses profile well and are good long-term betting propositions. DD: So can the weekend punter with pay TV gain a lot just by watching the videos, or do they also need other information like stewards reports and sectional times? RG: Realistically, watching replays places a punter at a decided advantage however to do it without the sectionals is quite frankly a waste of time. Unless of course you are an exceptional judge of pace. DD: So how should they go about using the sectional time information? I know some horses run what appear to be great sectionals pretty much every start but rarely win, while others run what look to be sensational sectionals in a race but then can't re-produce anything like that next time round? RG: True but there is a good reason for that. Race tempo alters immensely race to race and can be the undoing of many a horse. As I stated earlier some horses can run amazing closing sections off a slow speed but few can run quick off a solid tempo. Obviously that is the sign of a really good horse. I don't bet in races where my profile or criteria is not met. It's as simple as that.Look for those individuals who bucked the trend and either did it at both ends or whom came from off the pace in a slowly run affair and got home over them in a quick closing sectional. This type could well be in a race over the next few weeks where it will be on or near the lead which makes it a good betting proposition. DD: So are you giving the horse a rating just for that race or does each horse have a career rating that you then adjust after each run? RG: The historical rating really doesn't mean all that much to me. I am more interested in the last 3-4 runs and drawing a comparison to how it is performing relative to the same period in its previous preparation. My data is recorded numerically but it is also graphed to make it easier to decipher this information. DD: In watching each race so many times, you must get a good perspective on the relative merits of each jockey. Which names come to mind in terms of jockeys who you can pretty much guarantee will find the right position in the race to give their horse every possible chance? RG: A few that come to mind are Damien Oliver, Blake Shinn, Jim Cassidy, Stephen Arnold and Jeff Lloyd. Quite frankly I think that Melbourne jockeys have got lengths on Sydney at the moment. We're struggling a bit up here in Sydney to produce our own but then again there are quite a few really good ones overseas I guess. It certainly seems the ex-Melbourne and South Africans are really dominating here, for the moment anyway. DD: So just to summarise, what can punters can learn by watching race replays? RG: Apart from the obvious, when replays are viewed in association with the sectionals it is easy to determine the merit of a run. Many times what may have been considered to be an outstanding run may well have been little more than average and by the same token some horses that may have initially appeared to be disappointing may well have performed quite well under the circumstances.You have to rely on the data provided and as I alluded to earlier sometimes it is incorrect but overall it has to be taken at face value. If you are unsure, look to see the horses that finished near or around the one you are watching and you can draw a conclusion from there. The more replays you watch the better you will get and the harder you work the 'luckier' you will become. DD: Thanks again for your time.Stay tune for next video analysis among professional punters, best line for today is being confident looking at your best horse that finished near or gain final position from there you can start your conclusion among other players nor horses.

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