Signs That a Horse is Ready to Run a Big Race or Bounce

Signs That a Horse is Ready to Run a Big Race or Bounce

When handicapping a race to find good bets, horse players often consider a horse's form cycle and try to figure out if it is ready to perform well or poorly. When a horse has a really big race and expends a lot of energy, it may run a poor race the next time out. That is what is known as bouncing. On the other hand, looking at the races previous to today's race, handicappers try to determine if the horse has been improving, in other words, rounding into form. So it becomes necessary to understand when a horse will improve off its last effort or regress.

I like to see a horse who is coming back to the races to have had at least two races within the last 40 days. I also like to see that its last race was better than the previous one. However, if I see that the second race back required the horse to battle another runner on the lead and to fully extend itself through the stretch run, then I suspect that the horse may bounce and toss in a clinker.

This is precisely why trainers used to tell their jockeys to take it easy and not to try too hard in the first couple of races. They understood that while the horse was keen to win, it didn't have the physical conditioning to sustain a drive without injuring itself or taking too much out of it. This is particularly true of young horses who gain confidence by winning and quickly lose it by losing races.

So if you are handicapping a race and looking for a horse that is ready to run a big race, take the age of the horses into consideration. The younger the horses, in my opinion, the more likely they are to bounce. Not just because of physical factors, but also because they have to have the will to win and a big effort that results in a loss can be devastating to a young horse. Here are a few signs to look for when searching for the ready to run horse.

First of all, look for a horse who has had at least two races in the last forty days and one of them was within the last two weeks. Secondly, if the horse was involved in a grueling stretch drive or battled another horse for the lead throughout the race, beware. If, on the other hand, the horse laid back off the pace and made a good run in the stretch, that one may be ready to win in one of its next two races.

Another sign of a potential bounce horse is the highest speed figure horse. If the horse achieved its highest speed figure in its last race and didn't have an easy, uncontested lead, it may well bounce.

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