Spotting False Favorites When Handicapping Horse Races

Spotting False Favorites When Handicapping Horse Races

Wagering decisions about horse races are almost always made with the favorite in mind. The favorite, or chalk, is the horse that has the most money bet on it to win and will also usually be the horse that is used most in exotic bets. Therefore, the condition of the chalk and how it will run will determine how the pools are divided. This may all sound very academic but it is amazing how many people start handicapping a horse race without checking out the most popular horse first.

The horse that is considered the best in the race by most of the bettors usually wins about a third of the races. Looking at it another way, the favorite loses two thirds of the time. Simple arithmetic will tell you that finding those situations where it will have a reason to lose will open up the possibility of other good betting opportunities.

Though it may sound quite simple, the first method I use to determine who the contenders are and whether the people's choice is among them is to look at the column in the past performances where they indicate whether the horse has won at the track and distance. In other words, which runners have actually done what is being asked of them today?

It is amazing how many times people will make a horse the top betting choice at the lowest odds when it has not shown that it can do what is being asked of it. If the lowest odds are on a horse that hasn't done what is being asked while another horse who has won at the track and distance offers good odds, then that one who has done it may be a good bet.

Another big consideration is current form. If a thoroughbred hasn't raced within 35 days, it may not be in good shape. While workouts may help it to maintain some muscle, most winners have shown a race within the last 35 days. So if the top choice hasn't raced within 35 days, look for another contender who has and is also offering more attractive odds.

Another indication of a horse that is racing under a cloud is one whose connections are not very good at winning. I am talking about the trainer and jockey. If either one has a low win average, that is another red flag.

It helps to have a checklist that you go through when handicapping a race and if you start with the top horse you will soon be able to decide whether to play the favorite, look for another good contender, or pass the race.

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