System for Post-Flop Poker Outs

System for Post-Flop Poker Outs

System for Post-Flop Poker Outs

Knowing outs, probabilities and odds in poker is critical if you are going to play successfully over time. Games played with incomplete information are considered strategic in nature, holdem is, therefore, a strategic game. Knowing the odds of success and being able to weigh your chances against the price offered by the pot is an important piece of information required to make correct decisions at the holdem table. Without a clear understanding and application of poker math you are playing by the seat of your pants.

There are a few clear guidelines that can be incorporated into your game that are easy to learn.

1. Counting Outs

2. Estimating Probabilities

3. Counting the Pot

4. Estimating Pot Odds

Let's look at each of these a little deeper.

Counting Outs

An out is in point of fact a card that, if it comes, improves your hand. Distinguishing between outs with great rank and those with little value is an significant skill. Ranging in value from making the nuts to fashioning second best, outs are volatile beasts. So keep in mind the comparative value of your outs; if you have an up and down straight draw and you hit the bottom straight you may just have made second best, ouch!

Counting outs is relatively straightforward. All you must do is reckon which cards, if any, will improve your hand and then figure out how many of those cards are unknown to you at this moment. If you have a pair you have 2 outs to a set or quads. Flush draws have 9 outs, an up and down straight 8 outs and a gutshot straight draw only 4.

Estimating Probabilities

Precise computation of probabilities is complex and is unlikely to be done in your head. There are two solutions: 1) rely on memorized probabilities and odds for normal situations, or 2) use the Rule of 4 and 2 to estimate your probabilities.

The Rule of 4 and 2 is a simple multiplication problem. With two cards to come, multiply your outs by 4. The answer is a close estimation of the probability of completing your hand. With only one card to come multiply your outs by 2 and you get a new probability. Convert the answer to a statement of odds and you are good to go.

Counting the Pot

If you don't know how much money is in the pot it is problematic to figure the price the pot is offering you to make a call. In limit holdem I simply count the small bets already made and use that number as a guideline. In no-limit holdem, because the bet sizes are not fixed, I estimate the pot size by first knowing the price of a round of poker by adding the blinds and antes together. You get the pot size prior to any betting, a benchmark if you will. Then I add each bet to the opening pot during preflop action. Post flop, I can then estimate the size of the pot based on the fraction of the pot being bet. If the pot, for example, is $30 and someone bets $15 I know that a bet of half the pot is made and that the pot is now $45.

Estimating Pot Odds

Knowing what price the pot is offering me to call is a function of knowing the size of the pot and the size of the bet required to make a call. If, for example, the pot is $45 and I must bet $15 to call, the pot is offering 3:1. If the bet is $2 and the pot is $10 then the odds being offered by the pot are 5:1.

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