The Iraqi Parliamentary Election And The Result
The good news is that the Parliamentary elections finally came off in Iraq
. The bad news is that voting was down from the 2009 Provincial elections, and that deadly violence continues to plague and terrorize Iraqi society.
But now the true test begins! In the weeks and months ahead, the two winning alliances in this election will have to work together to form a coalition government and the sooner the better. The longer the al-Malaki government is in limbo, and his status as prime minister is uncertain, the more time Iraq has to fragment once again.
Al- Malaki's STATE OF LAW party apparently split the majority of votes with former prime minister Ayad Allawi's secular coalition, THE IRAQI NATIONAL MOVEMENT. Al-Malaki has successfully held off the more sectarian Shiite coalition, THE NATIONAL IRAQI ALLIANCE.
We now have the forces for democratic reform, openness and true reconciliation Allawi's coalition in a strong position to wrest significant power from the corrupt and dictatorial Shiite-dominated government of Nuri al-Malaki.
The question thus becomes, will al-Malaki allow it? Will his Shiite government, and their supporters in the military, bow to the will of the voters or will they manufacture any excuse to suspend the democratic process and the election mandate?
Al-Malaki's tenure as prime minister is very much in doubt, even within his own limited coalition. His reckless and transparent endorsement of the illegal disenfranchisement of over 500 candidates from this election made him new enemies.
If the forces for peace, justice and honest government are successful, Ayad Allawi will emerge as the most respected and logical candidate for prime minister within these two coalitions. All other arrangements and power-sharing decisions will flow from this one. Al-Malaki has accumulated much power within the office of the prime minister, and he will not give it up without a struggle, especially to Allawi, who has spoken out forcefully over the years in favor of a government free from religious dominance and influence.
The next few weeks and months will define Iraqi democracy once and for all. The strong showing by THE IRAQI NATIONAL MOVEMENT means that the Shiite stranglehold on power is seriously threatened.
We know from experience that elections alone do not guarantee democratic outcomes. The forces of tyranny can ride into power on the back of a democratic election, then undermine and corrupt that very same process so as to guarantee their lock on power.
The true test of any democratic election is whether or not a transition of power can take place peacefully and honestly while the institutions of government continue to function.
We're going to see, for better or worse, if Iraq can accomplish that difficult but essential goal. The Shiite-dominated al-Malaki government has been in power since 2005. With this election, Sunnis in exile and within the country have joined with secular Shiites and Christians to challenge the status quo and to stake their rightful claim to share in the decision-making processes of the central government.
In 2005, we had thousands of troops in Iraq to guarantee an orderly transfer of power to the newly elected parliament and their new prime minister. This time around, we won't be there in great and powerful numbers to enforce anything of a sort, which is why these coming weeks and months will be perilous.
This time around, Iraqis will be making all the hard but critical decisions and compromises necessary for an orderly realignment of power. If they fail in this test, and power ultimately ends up in the hands of those with the most brute force, then this experiment in Middle Eastern democracy will have failed completely.
by: Robert Hoffman
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