The international market pick up in May not see import and export value chain continued to decline (Chart) - import, export, export - Printing

The international market pick up in May not see import and export value chain continued to decline (Chart) - import, export, export - Printing

June 11, Customs figures released yesterday show that in May this year, China's import and export value of 164.13 billion U.S. dollars, down 25.9%, decreased 3.9%, compared with the April data is not a small gap. April total value of import and export 170.73 billion U.S. dollars, down 22.8%, growth of 10.4%.

China Import and Export situation reflects the real situation of the international market (HC Print Network with map)

Data: import and export Down 25.9% year on year drop of 3.9% of chain

5 month, China's export value down 25.9% year on year, the chain down 3.9%; exports 88.76 billion U.S. dollars, down 26.4%, decreased 3.4%; imports 75.37 billion U.S. dollars, down 25.2%, lower than the previous 4.4%.

This year from January to May, China's total foreign trade import and export value of 763.49 billion U.S. dollars, down 24.7% over last year. Exports 426.14 billion U.S. dollars, down 21.8% year on year; imports 337.35 billion U.S. dollars, down 28% year on year.

>> Interpretation At present there is no improvement in external demand

Economist Chen Jianguang of CICC, May exports fell suddenly told us that at present there is no improvement in external demand, countries have not been Financial Crisis completely out of the recession. China's major imports from overseas trading partners, no significant improvement. Although some of the world economy indicators are showing positive signals, but overall still in shock a basing process.

Data: surplus 5 surplus of 13.389 billion U.S. dollars

The first 5 months of the cumulative trade surplus of 88.79 billion U.S. dollars, a 15.7% increase over last year, a net increase of 12.05 billion U.S. dollars. One month of trade surplus in May 13.389 billion U.S. dollars. January to April, monthly trade surplus was 39.11 billion U.S. dollars, 48.4 billion dollars, 18.56 billion U.S. dollars and 13.14 billion U.S. dollars.

>> Interpretation May reduce the 100 billion annual trade surplus

General Administration of Customs said that the depth adjustment in exports, the current increase in foreign trade surplus narrowed significantly. According to the National Development and Reform Commission macroeconomic Zhang Yansheng, director of Foreign Economic Institute forecast that the surplus may be less than last year from 50 billion to 100 billion U.S. dollars.

Forecast Expected by the end of positive growth in foreign trade

Bank Development Research Fellow Liu to China: in the first half, China's import and export of negative growth is a foregone conclusion; in the second half, if Europe and the United States economy bottoms success, China's exports are expected to follow the recovery and positive growth by the end of year. The main factors support this view include: Europe and the United States and other developed economies have been some positive signals, by the end of 2009 or early 2010 is expected to start the recovery process; a number of countries to raise export tax rebates, foreign demand on policy stability; leading indicators Purchase Managers Index shows expansion of China's economy has entered a range; the fourth quarter of 2008, a low base. Policy of expanding domestic demand will continue

introduced

Shanghai Securities analyst on behalf of the Hong-kun: Fundamentally speaking, China's export situation improved, mainly in the external market can rebound. From the current situation, although the momentum of a slowdown in U.S. economic signs of deterioration, but the other developed and developing countries continues to decline. After the introduction in the early intensive policy, domestic demand has been some recovery, but recovery efforts are not enough. Therefore, the Government continue to produce a stable foreign trade policy can be expected, including continue to adjust export tax rebate rate to encourage export credit business, in order to provide the necessary export credit guarantee business and financial support, stable exchange rate, lower export tax, to promote the transfer and upgrading of processing trade.

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