The recent trend of fine-tuning the macro environment, the delicate situation of steel - the macro environment, steel - iron and steel industry

The recent trend of fine-tuning the macro environment

, the delicate situation of steel - the macro environment, steel - iron and steel industry

For the next phase of economic trends and price changes, the central bank, "China's monetary policy implementation report (second quarter of 2009)," pointed out that the current external demand remains weak, the domestic economic recovery are not yet solid; including external non- greater environmental uncertainty, the future price movements, there are uncertainties, lack of demand may still constitute a downward pressure on prices, but by a continuous and massive injection of liquidity impact of the stimulus plan, there are also upward pressure on prices. HC steel mesh Central bank recently announced second-quarter monetary policy report stressed that the next phase will unswervingly continue to implement a moderately easy monetary policy, according to domestic and international economic trends and price changes, the use of market-oriented means of dynamic fine-tuning. What is the concept of this fine-tuning, but the market reaction and current public opinion and people's expectations have been some departure from, why is the floor, Shanghai, Beijing Building will sell so well, why we vote money to buy these assets, that there is a white expected, and now the stock market a succession of cloudy, in fact, a reflection of people's expectations for the economy, whether at the technical level of fine-tuning, or a large directional tuning, I fear, are adjusting.

Ample liquidity this year and the past five years, the situation is entirely different face. In the past because of ample liquidity, foreign exchange increase the lead to the rapid growth of base money, but this year because the money multiplier to increase lead to broad money supply (M2) the rapid growth of base money growth is much higher than the case occurred in broad money reversed. As of 6 At the end of the base currency balance of 12.4 trillion yuan, 529.2 billion yuan less than the year, up 7.4%, down sharply year on year increase of 32.6 percentage points; M2 balance of 56.9 trillion yuan, up 28.5%, increase over the previous increased 11.2 percentage points on. At the same time, 6 at the end of the money multiplier to 4.59, respectively, compared with a year earlier and the high end of the first quarter of 0.75 and 0.32.

One hand, the economic recovery now pick up the critical period, the policy of any "inappropriate," the sign of trouble, may kill off the recovery of the seedlings, kill just to restore the confidence of the domestic. This is why, after the central level in the intensive research has repeatedly reiterated that the "double wide" macro-control policy unswervingly the root causes of the central bank is also not natural "swimming against the tide."

The other hand, liquidity is gradually beginning to show signs of flooding: the bulk asset prices climbing, the stock market index soared and, possible future inflation expectations have become deeply embedded, even worse, as low prices and easy financing bank financing, many financial capital from banks, has entered the commodity markets. According to media reports, this year, China imported large quantities of non-ferrous metals, particularly copper and aluminum, especially the huge volume of imports. However, the huge amount of non-ferrous metal imports, and not to enter the real economy, but by large speculators hoarded for profit. Linked to the current volatility in steel prices, inflation expectations has proved on the impact of commodity price movements.

The second half of the dynamic fine-tuning will be reflected in two ways: First, excess liquidity, primarily through open market operations based in the future of their efforts may be further strengthened. Followed by window guidance, appropriate control of the credit, while maintaining 'and elimination' principle, optimize credit structure, continue to increase support for the real economy. The second half of the credit issue will be the biggest challenge of economic and stable operation. Monetary policy to "Dynamic fine-tuning", the credit problem under central bank attention, although still emphasized "moderately easy", but the tightening of credit and liquidity during the year the trend has not reversed. Therefore, by the steel price trend in the second half of the environmental impact of currency, combined with industry overcapacity environment there is likely to appear once again to stock-based phenomenon.

In fact, the earlier stage of the steel from the current rising prices, largely caused by the steel seeks profit. Steel used Iron ore talks Deadlock situation, known as higher raw materials costs, pushed up steel prices through collective means to influence market expectations, and also supported by futures to do more and control the means of delivery with other operations, resulting in more passive traders hoarding resources enlarge the middle of the market demand, combined with current market funds face liquidity ample, the influence of various factors, steel prices in the third quarter from the beginning of the end of the second quarter started, and gradually move up to the high point of a stage early in August.

Date from late April, up 11 Sha Steel Rebar Ex-factory price. August 2, Jiangsu Sha Steel Group announced a drastic price increase, in August the price increases in early Pouges 700 / tonne, steel factory price also increase 600 yuan per ton, the highest since 2005, the highest single price increase.

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