Tight Market Supply And Demand Situation Is Difficult For The Quarter Rose Sugar Trade Down - Sugar,

National monetary policy shift in January, is expected to tighten liquidity early speculation over a huge impact on the sugar market

, sugar Zheng main contract in September taking nearly a month of gains, back to 5400? 5600 yuan / ton range of oscillation. With the systemic risk of gradually fading Sugar Will re-return to fundamentals, supply and demand pattern in the crop season tight situation, I have once again on the red sugar prices are expected momentum.

1, output is expected to drop down to 11 million tons or about

Production, along with the crop season of depth, the main production areas of sugar production cuts came the news constantly.

Guangxi direction, at 4.41 million tons of sugar by the end of January communist, an increase of 610 thousand tons, sugar rate of 12.46%, up by 0.83 percentage points. On the surface, Guangxi yield increase over the previous year, it should be noted that this is due to the early crop season high sugar prices, sugar mills due to open before pressing common. According to my understanding, due to severe drought in autumn and winter, sugar cane elongation growth rate be affected, although the Year at the red after the rain, but the crop season are the benefits of sugar cane juice into the little parts of sugarcane production in Guangxi than in the early pre-crop season estimate less. Another sugar high, stimulating expansion of sugarcane species, required a corresponding increase in the number of remaining species. These factors lead to sugar cane into juice much less than expected, there are already squeezed sugar before closing the case, to the end of February, ahead of the situation will receive more and more squeezed. I expected the current production at 7.2 million in Guangxi? 7.4 million tons, a decrease of 300 thousand? 400,000 tons.

Yunnan Province, as at the end of January communist sugar 440,000 tons, down 90,000 tons. Because once in 60 years suffered the severe drought and frost in some areas are also affected by disaster, resulting in a large area of sugar cane crops situation. Yunnan will cut the current conservative estimate of about 50 tons to 174 tons, later if the drought persists, rate cuts may be greater, and even affect the 2010/2011 crop season for sugar cane production.

Other parts of yield, total sugar beet in northern cut about 30 tons to 60 tons; Guangdong cut about 5 million tons to 100 tons; Hainan cut about 16 million tons to 300,000 tons.

In summary, as of now, the author is expected to 2009/2010 crop season was 11.07 million tons of domestic sugar production, cut about 2.36 million tons.

Second, consumer demand, strong growth, stocks fell consumption

Consumption, according to the average consumption in recent years, the growth rate of 3% estimate, the domestic sugar consumption in 2009/2010 crop season is expected to reach 14.3 million tons. To estimate a little more detail, refer to Bureau of Statistics of sugar Food Industry Production, cookies, candy, frozen staple food output year on year increase in 2009 were over 18% Juice And vegetable juices, Can Increase over the previous year is up to 40%. Do the same growth rate, combined with the estimated proportion of sub-sectors of sugar, domestic sugar consumption is expected to 2009/2010 crop season to be at least 14.5 million tons, but considering the high price of sugar substitutes under the effect of amplification, it is understood 10, 2009 month after Starch Sugar companies operating rates increase in sugar producing areas, the maintenance of 4,900 yuan / ton high above cases, the expected invasion of starch sugar to white sugar 1 million tons of market share.

Together, 2009/2010 crop season, at least in the domestic demand of 13.5 million tons of sugar on top, supply and demand gap, or up to 250 million tons per. The State Reserve early crop season about 2.6 million tons of sugar reserves, together with Hong Kong this year to the Cuban raw sugar, the total reserves of 300 million tons, while demand is sufficient to make up the gap, but also in a tight balance.

As shown below, 2009/2010 crop season stocks of domestic sugar consumption would be 11.46% higher than expected, while the previous two crop season are maintained at above 20%, inventory reduced consumption ratio, is the domestic sugar crop season price of the most powerful support. The domestic sugar supply and demand balance

The domestic sugar supply and demand balance

Third, the State Reserve sugar three times a library can not inhibit the sugar, low probability of short-term and then the library

2009/2010 crop season by the beginning of the national sugar reserve of 2.6 million? 2.8 million tons computing, storage has thrown three consecutive total of 860,000 tons, but failed to inhibit the sugar. It is understood that the State Reserve has been much refined sugar, 1.6 million tons of raw sugar to enter the market, you need time to process, short throw action or suspension break reservoir, the recent price of sugar is good news.

4, the global shortage of sugar, strong external disk boost domestic sugar prices

Support in the fundamentals, the external drive sugar prices 30 cents on several occasions to attack the high point of the corresponding Thai raw sugar, Brazil's raw sugar duty-paid price of imports has been refined to the shore, respectively, 7559 yuan / ton and the 7839 yuan / ton, and domestic sugar spot spreads widening, sugar exports profitable. Rumored to have an export business plan, and is actively preparing for the library. If true, then bound to widen the gap in domestic supply and demand. The 1? Stop pressing the central and southern Brazil in April, is bound to reduce exports, India, Vietnam, Indonesia and Pakistan are required to import large quantities of sugar in recent replenishment, the international sugar prices will remain strong in the first quarter.

V. market outlook

In systemic risk is gradually digested, the sugar market bullish support beginning to show, Zheng showed heavy volume of sugar has increased in the situation, positions began to increase, with the futures and spot the Pearl River background COFCO Futures are contracts holdings of more than 1009 thousands of hand bills, this also shows their strong confidence in the sugar crop season. Recommended to keep the sugar crop season to see more ideas, concerns early high pressure and systemic risk signal.

by: gaga

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