Walking A Mile In The Other Guy's Shoes

You wake up on the button with QdJd

You wake up on the button with QdJd. There is a limper in front of you in middle position. You decide to raise to 4x the BB just to punish the limper a bit. The BB calls. The flop comes Jc5d2d. The BB bets half the pot and the limper folds. The action is now on you.

Thinking Range of Hands

Just what could the BB have. He is a steady player, what I might call semi-loose and aggressive both pre and post-flop. He seems willing more often than not to be willing to defend his blinds with a wide range of hands. In short, his hand selection here may be wider than most. He could have a big pair, from AA to TT. A bit less likely would be hands that involve a Jack in some way, say AJ, KJ, QJ, or J5 - J2. I can beat some of this but not all of this. But I do have top pair with a decent kicker...So perhaps I can call.

Perhaps, however, he is defending his blind with a suited connector like 98, 87, 76 or 65? It is highly possible that this is the case. I can beat these. But I am troubled by his bet here. A bet of half the pot is a typical C-bet, but I was the pre-flop raiser. Does his bet indicate strength from early position? Is he posturing? Why, if he wants to indicate strength is his bet the minimum standard raise? Why not bet 2/3 the pot? If his past performance is any indicator then he is posturing from the big blind hoping to intimidate. Or is he?

Wait a minute. The last time I played against his blind he raised me with nothing but air and he played with aggression through the river. But I had a set of aces on that hand. Would he do the same thing twice in a row against the same opponent? It seems to me that he would be more likely to be playing from strength from this spot at this time rather than bluff at me a second time. On the other hand, he has made the same play against other opponents earlier in the game and paid a big price for that mistake.

I currently have him out stacked 2:1. His stack is average for the table and I have been a big winner this day. Do I push back? I certainly can afford it but if I push I will have to make my bet mean something. I would have to price him out of a big draw. I would have to draw a line in the sand and then hope I got my money in good. If I do this will he call? In the past, when challenged from early through middle position my opponent became quite passive, folding around 73% of the time he was faced with aggression from players to his left.

Decisions, Decisions...

Okay, the computer is beeping at me. The time bar is running down and I must make a decision. I raise the pot and I include his bet as part of the pot. My bet indicates two things. First, it says that I have a pretty big hand and that I believe the hand is best at the moment. Secondly, it says that I really don't believe my opponent. If he re-raises then I will get the bad news that I made a wrong decision. If he calls or folds the I am reasonably certain that my hand is best. He folds.

Considerations

As I worked through the possibilities here, I considered a number of factors including, hand ranges, past performance against me and other players at the table during this session, and I formulated a plan of action to take if I was played back at. I thought about my holdings but they became secondary once I decided that my pair with a flush draw with two cards to come was either best or would complete into the best hand. So what really became important was my opponent's behavior in same or similar circumstances.

By walking through the process and reasoning based on outcomes and then working backwards, I came to the conclusion that the most efficient way to close this hand out would be to come in over the top right now and not wait for another street to provide him with a free card to a draw. By pricing him out, I was able to win a small, but very welcome pot. By considering his motives and by counter measure options, I reasoned that the pot sized bet was the most efficacious and profitable call.

by: Roger Fischel

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