We are not flirting with the 150 day moving average, so why are people portraying to be bullish

The facts: Jobless claims report is a horrid number

, but somehow mutual fund managers and brokers think this is an outstanding number and we are in store for an overnight recovery. Millions of people are sitting at home without a job, others are relying on assistance, 829 banks are almost ready to fail and we have almost reached 1 million foreclosures. There is no solace in these facts. People are tying up their money for less than 2% for 10 years. Treasury auctions are at record lows. This is asinine.

As a trader you can only be bearish or bullish. If you are bearish you can make a lot of money in this market. If you are bullish, you will get buried. In April, we made the most recent market high; we pierced through the 150 day moving average in late May. However, we have not even flirted with getting above it. When we do, the move gets weaker and shorter. We are doing a classic rollover and move lower than we did before. You cannot become a trader overnight and you can't trade the news, you will get whipsawed. You can't guess we will go through the 150 MA and go through the roof. It can't happen. We have bounced against the 150 for 5 months, with each bounce getting weaker and the pullback getting stronger. Until we get above the 150 (as support) we are in a bear market. No bull market can last below the 150MA. The 150 is curling down. The best thing to do is be in cash, or put on a short position. The economic news is bad and corporate news is good, there is a disconnect between the two, therefore, I believe we are still in a bear market.

We are not flirting with the 150 day moving average, so why are people portraying to be bullish

By: Rob Wilmink

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