Weekly Snapshot – Outlook for Forex

Some positive news from the British Isles will have investors wondering if the pound could well see a rally over the coming period

. The British economy, long the pariah in a recovery oriented European zone, is beginning to see expanding home purchases and industrial production, while employment indicators are also encouraging. However, as with most of the central banks around the world, the Bank of England's expected decision on rates will keep the Pound's ascendancy in check, as the Bank will no doubt retain cautious.

Much of Europe looks towards Germany, whose vanguard recovery for Europe is crucial for the Euro. While its recovery is on pace, it has yet not giving investors confidence enough to push for a significant rally, keeping the pressure on the European Bank to maintain the Forex trading optimism with its forecast of, again, cautious positive movements expected in much of the Euro zone.

Forex day trades for the day are indicative of much gloom over the U.S. Dollar. As Forex markets look to keep away from the high risk of the Greenback, much of the risk stems from the latest bit of economic data about to be released by the Federal Reserve; the Beige Report'. Most, if not all Forex traders and Forex investors, (both the short and long arms of the Forex trade) are wary of the not seeing many robust signs of sustained recovery within the U.S.

The Yen continues to maintain its ground against the dollar, putting pressure on an economy driven by exports. The Japanese economy is not on very stable terms, and excessive pressure is still present on the Government to intervene and stem the continued strength of the Yen.

The central theme, one that seems to be recurrent week in week out, is the role that central banks (and the governments) continue to have in the world's largest economies. Recovery from the slump of recent times remains very much a purview of the financial dependency that banks and markets continue to have on their central banks. The Forex market, on the back of this dependency of global economic powers on central policy, will continue to show volatility on policy movements, and continue to make investors wary of inherent risk. As a by word, if there is anything to be concerned with for Forex trading, it remains the hand of (often) unwilling policy makers to interfere in the free movements of the markets. For as long as the hand of the benefactor remains present in global economics, the Forex market will continue to face uncertainty and the major currencies will continue to be damp on their spikes, losing much of the dynamism of trading in Forex and spot gains as investors take cue from monetary policy, rather than key market data, as their main source of decision making.

Investor's caution should be your caution this month. Central banks continue to curb their role on sentiment by making policy announcements an occasion to remind markets (and banks) to begin their long ride towards absolute independence. Stock and Forex markets will take some comfort in this, whether banks and financial markets will or not, remains to be seen.

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Weekly Snapshot Outlook for Forex

By: Mark Mcrae

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