What Is Short-range Forecasting?

How often have you cancelled picnics because of rain

? Have you ever seen the skies and decided to carry an umbrella or a sweater? Most people living in the UK, or any other country in the temperate zone, have faced these situations due to unreliable weather. Tourists are usually taken off-guard with sudden spells of rain or snow, as they rely on general weather information about a particular place. However, permanent residents are well aware of this and often refer to the television or a newspaper for daily weather forecasts. Quick updates about the weather for a considerably shorter duration are known as short-range weather forecasts.

What is it?

As the name suggest, short-range weather forecast is for a short span of time. It is usually valid up to 48 or 72 hours. This kind of estimation is mainly used to observe the latest changes in the weather. It is based only on the current weather report and provides a detailed prediction for the next 2-3 days.

How does it Work?

Since the prediction is only for a few days, this kind of forecasting is usually done with the help of a radar and satellite observations. These instruments collect and store data about local atmospheric conditions, which is eventually transferred to a computer. The computer then collates and processes this data to present a brief overview of the climate over the next few days. For example, to predict the weather in London for the next 48 hours, todays atmospheric pressure, temperature, humidity and other factors will be taken into account. This method has been aptly nicknamed nowcasting.

There is another technique for short-range weather forecasting, which is known as Model Output Statistics. This method uses past data of the weather to estimate current temperature, surface winds and other parameters, but primarily used to predict wind speed.

Is it Accurate?

In spite of the advanced technology used for forecasting weather, no method is completely foolproof. However, short-range forecasting has been proven correct most instances and is ideal for countries with unreliable weather. Also, it is more accurate when compared to long-range forecasting, which includes 5-day weather forecast and estimation of the weather over a fortnight or even a month.

Short-range weather forecasts are extremely vital; in fact, most residents of the UK rely upon daily weather tips. It helps them prepare for sudden showers and snowfall. So, if you ever get a chance to visit London or Manchester, make sure to read the weather report beforehand.

by: RoomSmith

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