When Will the Oil Run Low?
When Will the Oil Run Low?
When Will the Oil Run Low?
The history shows that many ultrapessimistic people, however as well as ultraoptimistic forecasts of experts in most cases didn't come true. Oil as the energy carrier, isn't something unique. Coal was earlier main energy source and raw materials for the chemical industry. In 1780th years there were forecasts that the European collieries are close to an exhaustion.
However and in 21 century in territory of the Western Europe there are considerable stocks of coal which, however, nobody develops as it is unprofitable. In 1875 on light there was a first forecast concerning oil world's reserves. It was made by John Njuberri, the main geologist of the State of Ohio who has declared that oil world's reserves come to an end. In 1880th years the top-manager of the oil company of world Standard Oil largest, at that point in time, has sold shares of company belonging to it as has come to a conclusion that oil comes to an end.
In 1973 an analyst of US State department James Akins has published the book "Oil Crisis: Time works against us" (The Oil Crisis: The time is wolf is here) in which also did rather pessimistic forecast about quantity of oil stocks in the world. In 1975 research center The Club of Rome has made the statement that the mankind will reach extraction peak in 2003. In 1979 US president Jimmy Carter, being based on CIA forecasts, has declared that oil wells all over the world "have shown a bottom".
According to the research hold by company British Petroleum, the situation is much heavier: the reconnoitered oil stocks of Canada, Vietnam and Great Britain at present rates of extraction should run low in six years, Norway - through 8, the USA - through 11, Turkmenistan - through 12, Russia - through 19, Kazakhstan - through 27, Mexico - through 21, Nigeria - through 30, Qatar - through 55. Deposits of Saudi Arabia should suffice for 85 years, the United Arab Emirates - on 114, Kuwait - on 127, Iraq - on 128. According to the American Institute of Oil, 95 % of accessible sources of oil in the world will be settled the next 56 years which have remained of 5 % will run low in 88 years. Thus to mankind it is given a maximum of 30-50 years to find oil replacement.
By estimations of the expert in the field of Vaclav Smila's power, oil world's reserves are limited enough. By its calculations, developed oil fields contain 850 billion barrels, plus of 150 billion barrels are in already reconnoitered deposits. Thus, oil world's reserves hardly exceed 1 trillion barrels is only approximately the fifth part from volume of the oil already used by mankind. According to this forecast in case any way sharply won't be found to increase economy of oil world's reserves will suffice no more, than for some decades. For comparison: coal world's reserves are estimated in 1 trillion tons, at its present consumption level should suffice for 230 years.
The Department of Energy of the USA annually publishes the strategic forecast concerning the future of various kinds of energy. In the report of 2010 analyzing a situation which can develop in the world by 2025, affirms, in particular, that the world prices for oil will smoothly grow, but rates of increase won't exceed what were marked last decades. The condition of the world prices for oil will inevitably be reflected in rates of development of used deposits and on working out of the new. For example, at the low prices for oil to the oil companies will be unprofitable to extract oil from the small deposits which are under water.
Oil consumption also depends on technical progress which allows to maintain more successfully available deposits, it is better to overwork and more economically to use oil. If similar technologies successfully develop and be used, oil consumption remains at available level or even will a little decrease. Besides, there is a number of perspective production technologies of artificial oil, for example, from a poultry feather.
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