When You Handicap a Horse Race, How Do You Compare the Runners

When You Handicap a Horse Race, How Do You Compare the Runners

There are many ways to try to determine the fair value of a horse in a race. I am not suggesting actually buying or claiming the horse, but I am writing about how you know what the runner's chances of winning might be. While it is fun to try to pick the winner of a race, it is better, from a financial point of view, to determine the horse's probability of winning so that you then know if the odds are fair or if it is bet down below a profitable level.

When it comes to successful horse racing betting, knowing how likely a contender is to win is the way you eventually make a profit. That is easier said than done, however, because there are so many variables in a race. So just what exactly do you compare?

You start with what are known as horse racing factors. The main considerations are class, speed, form, connections (jockey, trainer, owner). The best methods are probably those that assign some kind of point value to each factor so that you can see how big a difference there is between the horses. Not only should there be a clear way of comparing each horse's factors to the other horses, but there should also be a way to determine how important each one of those factors may be.

For instance, in races for very young horses speed may be more important than class. On the other hand, if the race is for maiden horses and there is a horse that has never raced before, starting for a trainer who wins very often with first time starters, then the connections may be most important. Some of the better known suppliers of past performances often weight the factors and give a synopsis of the races to help the handicapper know how often favorites win and how important early speed and post position may be.

Once you have a clear idea of how the horses compare to each other based on each factor and the point spread, the next step is to look at the odds. Since they will fluctuate throughout the course of the betting, the closer to post time that you wager, the better, but be warned that half of the money that will be wagered on the race often comes in very late so the odds you see at post time may not be the final odds that you receive after the pools are closed.

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