Who's next?
Who's Next?
Who's Next?
As the 2010 golf season comes to a close it feels like a good time to reflect on the last season and the last decade of golf. Also, I couldn't figure out a better opening sentence for this post.
Of course, the central figure in the last ten years was Tiger Woods. He was absolutely dominant from 2000 to 2009. This past season has been a little different for Tiger. His life and golf game are seemingly in shambles after he was caught indulging in the benefits of being a superstar.
There seems to be a sort of changing of the guard on tour this year. This has been highlighted by wins by the younger players on tour. Dustin Johnson, Hunter Mahan, Rory McIlroy, Camilo Villegas, Anthony Kim, Jason Day and Martin Kaymer are all winners this season and all are under 30. However, I feel like we've heard this song before; a large group of up-and-coming 20 somethings that are ready to take over golf. And last time, it just didn't happen.
We spent a lot of the last decade looking for the next great player to challenge Tiger Woods. We looked everywhere and didn't find any serious contenders, especially within Tiger's own generation or amongst the group of those slightly younger than him. Multiple major champions from the last ten years arePhil Mickelson (4), Padraig Harrington (3),Vijay Singh (2), Angel Cabrera (2), and Reteif Goosen (2). None of these players are younger than Tiger and only Harrington (39) is under 40 in 2010.
There is a whole host of players that were up-and-comers in the last decade that were expected to challenge Tiger and win majors. This never really materialized. Luke Donald, Ian Poulter, Paul Casey, Adam Scott, Justin Rose and Sergio Garcia are all now in their 30s and have won a combined zero majors. All of these players have already had solid careers. They've played in Ryder Cups and Presidents Cups, won world golf championships and contended in majors, but none of them are hall of famers yet.
By the time he was 30, Tiger Woods had won 10 majors. However, Tiger Woods is an anomaly. Not just because he has been so dominant, but because he won in his 20s. The youngest first time major winner in the last decade was Martin Kaymer, who is 25. Tiger was just 21 when he won The Masters in 1997.
The point here is that not only is winning majors difficult, but winning majors in your 20s is exceedingly rare. Tiger's early success gave us unrealistic expectations of the 20 somethings on tour. The major-less players listed above are just entering their golfing prime (early to mid-30s) so it is too early to dismiss them as underachievers.
However, it seems that the golfing world has already shifted their attention to a new crop of 20 somethings to be "the next ones". Jason Day (22), Rickie Fowler (21), Rory McIlroy (21), Anthony Kim (25), Dustin Johnson (26) and Martin Kaymer (25) have all been included in the discussion of the next great player. Include the attention around Ryo Ishikawa (18) and Matteo Manassero (17) and it seems that the media and fans of the game are ignoring history and are looking too far down the line.
As Tiger's life changes and swing changes continue to unfold there are many players looking to take over the top spot in golf. All of these young-guns are great players and are immensely talented, but winning majors and being one of the greatest players on tour takes experience. Tiger's career path is atypical. The more normal course is to progressively get better, have some near misses and then finally break through (Phil Mickelson). This is why a golfer's prime is in his 30s and not his 20s.
Rory, Rickie and AK will have great careers, but for them to win a major sooner rather than later is unlikely. They need to learn how to win and experience some challenges before they can be true superstars. Just look at Matt Kuchar. Now 32, Kuchar won the 1997 US amateur and was pegged for great things. Kuchar won some lesser tour events and struggled with his game during the 2000s before breaking through a couple weeks ago with a big win at the first playoff event.
In the next decade we will certainly see these young players mature and improve. Most of them will probably win majors. But look for the players that are already mature and seasoned to win in the next couple years, while the McIlroys and Fowlers will dominate further in the future. In 2020, Rory will only be 31, and he'll just be entering his prime.
I would love to see young players like McIlroy clean up at the majors in the next few years, but I'm not holding my breath.
For more golf visit us at loopinforthelama.blogspot.com
Who's next?
By: Loopin For The Lama
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