World Cup Economics
As you enjoy watching the excitement of the World Cup in South Africa
, you might also like to think about how these nations are drawn together not just on the football field but also in world economics.
Let's take a look at how these competing countries perform in the world marketplace...
Australia vs Germany
Unfortunately Australia was outclassed by Germany's stronger team.
But that doesn't mean we are outclassed in our economy. Although driven by different sectors, with Australia being rich in minerals and resources and Germany at the other end of the spectrum having strength in manufacturing, both countries are linked economically.
Germany is well known for its production of cars and machine tools, while Australia is well known for the raw materials required to make them.
So we'll likely remain friends off the paddock for years to come with our export/import relationship. Coal exports to Germany amounts to more than half a billion dollars a year while Germany is Australia's fifth largest merchandise import source (mainly cars). (Source: DFAT)
USA vs England
England's goalkeeper Robert Green made a shocking blunder when he fumbled the only goal scored by the United States to even the final score to 1:1.
In terms of fumbling, the same could be said for the UK's economic recovery compared with the US.
The International Monetary Fund is predicting 3.1% growth for the US in 2010 and only 1.3% for the UK. Certainly this is reflected in the currency movements of the pair over the last year with the US dollar strengthening.
But while the two countries are seeing different speeds of growth, both countries will likely see subdued growth for an extended period.
Greece vs South Korea
These two countries are a complete contrast economically as well as in the game that was played on Saturday night (Greece 0: South Korea 3).
While South Korea's unemployment rate is 3.2%, Greece's unemployment rate is at a staggering 11.6%.
In fact, the economic strength in South Korea is not confined to their country alone but also spans the Asia Pacific region.
China's exports were up 48.5% in May which is fuelling strong growth in other neighbouring countries such as South Korea and even Australia. Things are even looking up in New Zealand. The main risk is if China's attempts to cool its economy impacts on the growth story in the region in the short to mediumterm.
Greece meanwhile is an economic basket case. The country cannot afford to pay back its debt and now has to choose between declaring itself bankrupt or leaving the Euro currency. If Greece chooses to go with its own currency, the currency can be devalued. This will hopefully stimulate exports but balancing the books will be a slow process.
South Africa
Holding the World Cup will obviously boost South Africa's economy from the tourism dollars, but it's also a chance to show the world all the changes that have emerged in this nation, particularly over the last decade.
South Africa is a country rich in resources and there is an ever-expanding number of ASX-listed companies involved in exploration and production there.
A sample of a few ASX-listed companies significantly involved in South Africa include:
Vantage Goldfields (VGO)
Anglogold Ashanti (AGG)
Continental Coal (CCC)
Molopo (MPO)
Industrea (IDL)
Resource Generation(RES)
Atomic Resources (ATQ)
Peak Resource (PEK)
Riversdale (RIV).
The country has well-developed infrastructure and transport sectors. Yet it is also a country that has a large gap between wealth and poverty. With infrastructure being built, it is becoming more attracting to businesses.
But the biggest problem for these companies heavily involved with South Africa is stability. Instability comes from the gap between the wealthy and poor and their access to basic services. But it's not so much the stability of governments these companies would be worried about they would be more concerned about the stability of business arrangements.
What about the South African rand?
South Africa's currency the rand is like the Aussie dollar in that it is considered a risk currency. So it tends to be strong when the US dollar is lower and weaker when the US dollar is higher.
As you can see from the chart below, the US dollar to South Africa's rand (shown in dark green) moves in a similar way to US dollar to Aussie dollar (shown in light green)
So have fun watching the rest of the World Cup and make sure you avoid fumbling or even worse scoring an own goal by paying attention to what's happening in the global economic pitch.
Happy trading and happy World Cup!
Happy trading!
Julia Lee
Equities Analyst
Bell Direct
World Cup Economics
By: Julia Lee
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