Yen Intervention

This week, after a Monday holiday in Japan, the yen has again gradually strengthened

. The dollar fell to a low of JPY84.78 Wednesday morning before gaining some ground to trade at JPY84.89.

There were some jitters as the dollar fell below the JPY85 mark in the view that this could represent a new floor for what the government will tolerate. Government officials have repeatedly said there are no set limits, while some corporate leaders say the yen needs to be even weaker.

Adding to the dollar's weakness was the outcome of the Tuesday meeting of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee. While the statement afterward was almost exactly what the market had expected, it still pointed to possible future easing by the Fed. Such a move would again lower the yield gap between U.S. and Japanese bonds, encouraging investors to move back to the yen, which is now enjoying 'safe haven' status.

Some traders said that with the Japanese government having lost the element of surprise, it would need to give an even bigger punch in any new round of intervention.

But for now, the government still seems to have surprise on its side, this time by sitting back and watching. Traders see Thursday's national holiday in Japan as a potential opportunity since the market would inevitably be thin due to the lack of participation from Tokyo.

If you want to know where the Japaneses yen is headed, then you need to try our Elliott Wave Financial Service. You will receive 4 hour wave counts for many different pairs which are updated every day, before the European session gets underway plus the intra-day wave counts (such as 1 hour or 30 min chart) which are posted and updated during the European and U.S. trading sessions.

by: Grega Horvat

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