Zuo Xiaolei: exports caused by external demand is the main factor in the decline of domestic steel prices - iron and steel production, iron and steel

Zuo Xiaolei: exports caused by external demand is the main factor in the decline

of domestic steel prices - iron and steel production, iron and steel

Famous economist Zuo Xiaolei a few days ago to attend the "2008 Top 500 Private Enterprises in the dialogue in the world," said the General Assembly: The decline in foreign demand for domestic steel prices plunge caused by round, steel production was forced to reduce the main reason.

Zuo Xiaolei said that in the first half and second half of the domestic economy has experienced situation. Domestic economy is virtually in the third quarter of negative growth data. In October, the main output of heavy industry products were significantly slowed down, so the steel industry had the most significant negative growth of steel, respectively 16.8%, 17.0% and 12.4%, 0.7% negative growth in automobile production. Iron and steel industry as the most significant decline in industry, in June to three-month steel output in September dropped 23%.

Zuo Xiaolei with the changes of supply and demand curve that changes in steel production and prices, from June and October of this year, steel production fell by 30-40%, prices fell by 50%. Prices and output drop by the fact that at the same time, concluded: This round of changes in steel production, is the impact of declining demand. If the supply curve to the upper left movement, the consequences will be the price rise, decline; if the supply curve is moving to the right, will result in the falling prices, increased output; only the demand curve to move left when will bring down the price and yield while.

A decline in demand for steel, iron and steel industry, change is the impact of foreign demand or domestic demand, or by which a greater impact? Zuo Xiaolei said that under the in August 2008, September's exports, steel exports in September decreased by 100 million tons, the decrease in September was 16.06%. Steel in September fell more than 187 million tons, a decrease is 3.93%, close to 4%. Industry-wide decline in the total amount of time, the proportion of exports reached 53%, close to 54%, so just from the direct impact of exports can be found that a mutation in the steel industry, exports decline in external demand, affecting more than 50% reached nearly 54% of the impact of such a scale. Indirect effects from the export point of view, the steel-related industries decline, such as container industry, ship manufacturing, container industry, particularly in the second half of October, a sharp decline in global container orders, almost no industry-wide orders. Manufacturing orders ship same is true of the famous maritime agencies to data issued: January to September total tonnage of the world's orders fell 27%, the new global order in which the amount in September fell 66.9% year on year. These container ships are also made in China, exports of these services need to supply China's steel, so this is an indirect effect on the steel industry needs. The container industry and other steel-related industries, affecting 54% of direct exports, coupled with indirect effects certainly more than 60%, and that the impact of external demand, exports, is the impact of this round of the main factors in the steel industry.

The domestic demand of the steel industry, Zuo Xiaolei change that after deducting exports, not a major factor affecting more than 30%. This once again proves the export market impact of foreign demand for steel is relatively large.

Zuo Xiaolei said the decline is different in different varieties of steel may be a relationship with the real estate decline. Real estate industry chain is very strong, driven real estate market adjustments, driven adjustments in related industries, but the decline in construction iron steel production decline is not the main factors closely related to steel shipbuilding Plate And other related products is not obvious decline. Shipping timber manufacturing steel production accounted for larger proportion of the decline. According to analysis and data, especially steel production of specific analysis, which a mutation of the economy, first and second half of sudden changes, most important reason for a rapid decline in export demand, it is very important.

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