subject: Aarkstore Enterprise--fertilizer Investment Research Report Proposal [print this page] Fertilizer Investment Research Report Proposal
Table of Contents :
Focal Viewpoints 1
I. Prosperity Index of Fertilizer Industry. 2
1. Prosperity Index of Fertilizer Industry: bottom hitting in Q1 of 2009, stabilization and rally expected in Q2 . 2
2. Research on Fertilizer Demand . 4
Drivers of Fertilizer Demand: acreage, ratio between grain and fertilizer, and fertilizer export 4
Grain Production Level: 5.4% growth of grain production in 2008, and production in 2009 is projected to be similar as in 2008 4
Ratio between Grain and Fertilizer: the rising of the ratio in Q1 of 2009 was conducive to mobilize farmers to buy more fertilizer 4
Fertilizer export: export in Q1 2009 fell sharply from Q1 2008 except for DAP 5
3. Research on Fertilizer Supply 5
Drivers of fertilizer supply: abundance of raw material supply, stock and import volume 6
Abundant supply of coal and natural gas, 5.7% growth and 7.5% growth respectively in Q1 2009 6
Sulphur Production: 2.4 million tons production in 2009 is expected, the rate of dependence on import to fall to 78% 6
Pyrite Production: 0.6% less production in Q1 2009 than Q1 2008, the falling rate slowed down 7
Phosphorus Ore Production: 2.9% growth in Q1 2009 than Q1 2008, a rally was seen 7
Ratio between stock and consumption: stock pressure still big . 8
Still surplus production capacity of nitrogen fertilizer, the ratio between stock and consumption in 2009 to rise to 30.7%. 8
Serious surplus of production capacity of phosphate fertilizer, the ratio between stock and consumption to rise to 23.6% in 2009 8
Still serious shortage of production capacity of potash fertilizer, the ratio between stock and consumption to fall to 11.1% in 2009 due to restraint of import. 9
Compound and mixed fertilizers, the ratio between stock and consumption to rise to 24.9% in 2009 9
Fertilizer Import: import in Q1 2009 fell noticeably from Q1 2008 9
