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subject: Pipeline Insight: Leukemias Underserved Patient Populations Offer Potential For Market Growth [print this page]


Introduction
Introduction

Despite major advances in treatment in the last decade, a considerable percentage of the leukemia population still has high unmet needs. Some key oncology companies have entered the leukemias market fairly recently while others are pursuing late-phase development in this indication, hoping to exploit the commercial potential of patient subgroups underserved by existing treatment options.

Scope

*Forecast sales of the drugs in late-phase development for leukemia in the seven major markets over the period 2010 to 2019

*In-depth analysis for all leukemia drugs in late-phase development, including trial data, SWOT analysis and clinical and commercial potential

*Segmentation and analysis of the leukemia pipeline by developmental phase, class and indication

*Insight and analysis of leukemia market potential including epidemiology, patient segmentation, unmet needs and target product profiles

Highlights

Despite high cure rates in some forms of leukemia, certain groups of patients still have high unmet needs. Drug developers are targeting increasingly defined subsets of patients with high unmet need in order to establish a market for their products. Examples include elderly patients and patients with certain genetic characteristics.

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) offers the greatest potential. Datamonitor forecasts the three drugs in late-phase development to achieve total sales of $938m in 2019. This stems from the large size of the target patient populations and a lack of effective treatment options in these patient subgroups, which will drive high market penetration.

A number of late-phase drugs will have a notable impact on the leukemia market as they go some way towards addressing some of the remaining unmet needs. These agents include Revlimid (lenalidomide; Celgene), RG7159 (obinutuzumab; Glycart/Roche/Genentech/Biogen Idec/Chugai) and bosutinib (PF-5208763; Pfizer).

Reasons to Purchase

*Justify go/no-go decisions on the basis of potential return on investment

*Identifying licensing opportunities based on company portfolio and market needs

*Use product profiles to aid pricing and reimbursement decisions

Table of Contents :

"Overview 1

Catalyst 1

Summary 1

ABOUT HEALTHCARE 2

About the Oncology pharmaceutical analysis team 2

Executive Summary 3

Strategic scoping and focus 3

insight into the disease market 3

Contributing experts 5

Related reports 5

Upcoming related reports 5

Table of Contents 6

1. Pipeline Overview and Dynamics 7

Key findings 7

Pipeline overview 8

Pipeline summary 8

Acute myeloid leukemia is the form of leukemia most targeted by drug developers 9

Targeted therapies account for over half of leukemia drugs in clinical development 11

Comparative forecasts 12

Drugs in late-phase development for leukemias will achieve combined sales of $1.9 billion by 2019 12

Key companies involved in the leukemias pipeline 14

Novartis 14

Roche 15

Key R&D company strategies 16

Drug developers are targeting increasingly defined subsets of patients 16

2. R&D Approach 17

Key findings 17

Clinical trial design in leukemia 17

Patient selection 17

Increasingly significant in the era of targeted treatment 17

Clinical trial duration 18

Sufficient follow-up is necessary to establish true clinical benefit 18

The advent of novel therapies 18

Diversity of targeted therapies will require an evolution in clinical trial design 18

Clinical trial endpoints in leukemia 18

Most oncology clinical trials designate multiple endpoints 18

Survival 19

Quality of life 19

Response rates 19

Toxicity 19

Time to progression 19

3. Acute lymphoblastic leukemia 21

Key findings 21

Disease overview - market potential 22

Definition of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) 22

ALL is a group of disorders that result from aberrant proliferation and differentiation of lymphoblasts 22

Genetic alterations provide insight into the pathogenesis of ALL 22

Non-specific syndromes are common in ALL 23

Patient segmentation 23

The classification of ALL is still evolving 23

Patients are stratified according to risk 24

Response to therapy: minimal residual disease is a critical prognostic factor 25

Epidemiology 25

Incidence of ALL will reach over 11,000 in the seven major markets by 2019 25

Current treatment options 27

Remission-induction 31

Consolidation treatment 32

Maintenance treatment 32

Current comparator therapies 33

Unmet need in ALL 33

More effective therapies are required for adult ALL, particularly for relapse 33

Philadelphia chromosome-positive patients remain a patient subset with high unmet need despite new therapies 34

More research is needed for elderly ALL patients 34

Prognostic markers are required for risk-adapted therapeutic strategies 35

Target product profiles versus current level of attainment 35

Induction therapy 35

Relapse therapy 36

Pipeline analysis and forecasts 38

Pipeline summary 38

Comparative forecasts 40

Graspa (erythrocyte-encapsulated L-asparaginase; ERYtech) 42

Drug overview 42

Drug profile 42

Key historical events 43

Clinical trial data 43

Phase II data suggest that Graspa is better tolerated than native L-asparaginase, while inducing similar asparagine depletion 44

SWOT analysis 45

Clinical and commercial attractiveness 45

Limited evidence of clinical efficacy makes it difficult to comment on Graspa's clinical potential 45

A favorable toxicity profile alone may not be sufficient for Graspa to capture significant market share 45

Forecasts to 2019 46

Marqibo (liposomal vincristine; Hana Biosciences) 47

Drug overview 47

Drug profile 47

Key historical events 48

Clinical trial data 49

Marqibo shows promising evidence of efficacy in heavily pretreated ALL 50

SWOT analysis 52

drug assessment summary for Marqibo 53

Clinical and commercial attractiveness 53

Marqibo will only partially address the need for more effective salvage regimens in ALL 53

Data from a small single-arm study may be insufficient to support approval and drive uptake of Marqibo 54

Forecasts to 2019 54

Rituxan/MabThera (rituximab; Biogen Idec/Roche/Genentech/Zenyaku Kogyo/Chugai) 55

Drug overview 55

Drug profile 56

Key historical events 57

Clinical trial data 58

Rituxan/MabThera plus HyperCVAD shows promising evidence of efficacy in younger patients with CD20-positive ALL 58

Rituxan/MabThera plus HyperCVAD also shows promising efficacy in Burkitt-type ALL, particularly in elderly patients 59

SWOT analysis 61

drug assessment summary for Rituxan 62

Clinical and commercial attractiveness 62

Phase II data point to Rituxan/MabThera's promising potential in ALL, but provoke several questions 62

The use of Rituxan/MabThera in ALL may remain off-label for the foreseeable future 63

Forecasts to 2019 64

4. Acute myeloid leukemia 65

Key findings 65

Disease overview - market potential 66

Definition of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) 66

AML is a disease of older age 66

Symptoms can vary for AML patients 66

Patient segmentation 66

Two classification systems are used in AML 66

Cytogenetics is the most important prognostic factor 67

Age is a major determinant of survival 68

Secondary AML patients have particularly poor prognosis 69

Epidemiology 69

Incidence of AML will reach over 31,000 in the seven major markets by 2019, driven by population aging 69

Current treatment options 71

Induction treatment 73

Post-induction treatment 73

Consolidation treatment 74

Relapse treatment 74

Current comparator therapies 74

Unmet need in AML 75

More effective and tolerable therapies are required for AML, particularly in older patients 75

HSCT remains an underutilized procedure 76

Molecular markers may help improve risk-adapted therapeutic strategies 76

Target product profiles versus current level of attainment 76

Induction therapy 77

Consolidation therapy 77

Relapse therapy 78

Pipeline analysis and forecasts 80

Pipeline summary 80

Comparative forecasts 81

AS1413 (amonafide; Antisoma) 85

Drug overview 85

Drug profile 85

Key historical events 86

Clinical trial data 87

Antisoma has amended the primary endpoint in AS1413's pivotal Phase III study 87

Phase II study shows encouraging evidence of activity in secondary AML 88

SWOT analysis 89

drug assessment summary for AS1413 90

Clinical and commercial attractiveness 90

AS1413 has the potential to address unmet need in a difficult-to-treat patient population 90

AS1413's potential in the wider AML population is uncertain 91

Forecasts to 2019 91

Clolar/Evoltra (clofarabine; Genzyme) 92

Drug overview 92

Drug profile 93

Key historical events 94

Clinical trial data 95

Phase II data in newly diagnosed elderly AML insufficient to support label extension for Clolar 97

Phase II data show potential of Clolar in combination with low-dose cytarabine 98

SWOT analysis 99

drug assessment summary for Clolar/Evoltra 100

Clinical and commercial attractiveness 100

Clolar's unsuccessful bid for accelerated approval in AML is a double blow to Genzyme 100

Clolar could receive off-label use in the absence of label expansion 101

Forecasts to 2019 102

Dacogen (decitabine; Eisai) 103

Drug overview 103

Drug profile 104

Key historical events 105

Clinical trial data 106

Dacogen has shown promising evidence of efficacy in previously untreated elderly AML patients 107

SWOT analysis 109

drug assessment summary for Dacogen 110

Clinical and commercial attractiveness 110

Dacogen's low toxicity could be a major driver of uptake 110

Vidaza will be Dacogen's principal competitor in the AML market 111

Forecasts to 2019 112

Midostaurin (PKC412; Novartis) 113

Drug overview 113

Drug profile 113

Key historical events 114

Clinical trial data 115

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