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China fertilizer Market Review & Outlook Proposal 2009/2010

Table of Contents :

CHAPTER ONE: MACRO-ECONOMY & FERTILIZER INDUSTRYfS DEVELOPMENT 1

1.1 Chinafs Economic Situation 1

1.1.1 Macro National Economic Situation in 2009 and Trend in 2010 1

1.1.2 Implementation of Main Planned Targets of the National Economy 3

Table1.1, Fulfillment of Objectives Set for 2006-2009 4

1.1.3 Implementation of Main Planned Targets of Agricultural Development 4

Table1.2, Fulfillment of Major Farm Product Supply Objectives Set in 2006-2009 4

1.1.4 Implementation of Main Planned Targets of Chemical Industry 5

Table1.3CFulfillment of Major Chemical Product Supply Objectives Set in 2006-2009 5

1.1.5 Implementation of Main Planned Targets of Fertilizer Industry 5

Table1.4, Fulfillment of Fertilizer Objectives Set for 2006-2009 6

1.2 Impact on Fertilizer Industry from Agricultural Policy 6

1.2.1 Impact on Demand for Fertilizer from Grain Procurement Price Policy 6

1.2.2 Impact on Demand for Fertilizer from Direct Grain Subsidy and Integrated Subsidy for Agricultural Means of Production 6

1.2.3 Impacts on Fertilizer Industry from Other Agricultural Policies 7

1.3 Impacts on Fertilizer Production from Resource Policy Adjustment 8

1.3.1 Impacts from Coal Resource Restructuring Plan 8

1.3.2 Impacts from Natural Gas Price Policy Adjustment 9

1.3.3 Impacts from Trend of Mine Resource Policy 10

1.4 Impacts on Investment and Development of Fertilizer Industry from Currency and Financial Policy Adjustment 10

1.5 Impact on Fertilizer Logistics from Fuel Oil Policy Adjustment 11

1.6 Impacts on Fertilizer Industry from Development of Chemical Industry 11

1.7 Investment in Fertilizer Industry 12

1.7.1 Investment in Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry 12

Table1.5, Investment in the Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry, 2006-2009 12

1.7.2 Investment in Phosphate fertilizer Industry 12

Table1.6, Investment in the Phosphate Fertilizer Industry, 2006-2009 13

1.7.3 Investment in Potash fertilizer Industry 13

Table1.7, Investment in the Potash Fertilizer Industry, 2006-2009 13

1.7.4 Investment in Compound Fertilizer Industry 14

Table1.8, Investment in the Compound Fertilizer Industry, 2006-2009 14

1.7.5 Investment in Organic Fertilizer Industry 14

Table1.9, Investment in the Organic Fertilizer Industry, 2006-2009 15

1.8 Analysis of Fertilizer Industryfs Competitiveness 15

1.8.1 Nitrogen Fertilizer Industryfs Competitiveness 15

Table1.10, Competitiveness index of Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry 15

1.8.2 Phosphate Fertilizer Industryfs Competitiveness 15

Table1.11, Competitiveness index of Phosphate Fertilizer Industry 16

1.8.3 Potash fertilizer Industryfs Competitiveness 16

Table1.12, Competitiveness index of Potash Fertilizer Industry 16

1.8.4 Compound Fertilizer Industryfs Competitiveness 17

Table1.13, Competitiveness index of Compound Fertilizer Industry 17

1.9 Structural Changes of Fertilizer Industry 17

Figure1.1 Proportion of China Fertilizer Production 18

1.10 Development of Fertilizer Distribution System 18

1.10.1 Policy Change on Fertilizer Circulation System 18

1.10.2 Development of Chain Operation of Agricultural Means of Production 19

1.10.3 Construction of Domestic Marketing Network of Sinochem Fertilizer 19

1.10.4 Construction of Marketing Network of Sino-agri 19

1.10.5 Development of Logistics of Agricultural Means of Production of Post System 20

1.10.6 Sub Distribution and Circulation of Foreign-funded Companies 20

CHAPTER TWO: REVIEW & OUTLOOK OF FERTILIZER MARKET IN 2009-2010 21

2.1 Review of Fertilizer Market in 2009 21

2.1.1 Analysis of Prosperity Degree of Fertilizer Industry in 2009 21

Table2.1, Economic Indicators of Fertilizer Industry in 2009 21

Figure2.1, Profit margin of chemical fertilizer manufacture 22

2.1.2 Analysis of Fertilizer Market Trend in 2009 22

2.1.3 Impacts from International Fertilizer Market in 2009 23

Figure2.2, International Fertilizer Prices 23

2.1.4 Impacts from Export Duty Policy in 2009 23

Figure2.3CDuty Rate for Chinafs Exported FertilizerC2008-2009 24

2.1.5 Analysis of Fertilizer Input and Output of Planting Industry in 2009 24

Figure2.4, Returns from Major Crops in China 25

Figure2.5, Grain/Fertilizer Price Ratio 26

2.1.6 Fertilizer Production in 2009 26

Figure2.6, Monthly Total Fertilizer Production 26

2.1.7 Fertilizer Imports & Exports in 2009 27

Figure2.7 China Fertilizer Net Imports 27

Figure2.8, Proportion of China Fertilizer Imports, 2009 28

Figure2.9, Proportion of China Fertilizer Imports, 2008 28

Figure2.10, Proportion of China Fertilizer Exports, 2009 28

Figure2.11, Proportion of China Fertilizer Exports, 2008 29

2.1.8 Fertilizer Consumption in 2009 29

2.1.9 Fertilizer Price Trend in 2009 30

Figure2.12, Producerfs Prices of Fertilizers, 2007-2009 31

Figure2.13, Retail Prices of Fertilizers, 1998-2009 32

2.2 Outlook of Fertilizer Market in 2010 33

2.2.1 Outlook of Fertilizer Market Trend in 2010 33

2.2.2 Estimates of Fertilizer Input/Yields in Crop Farming in 2010 34

2.2.3 Fertilizer Import Quotas & Import Agents in 2010 34

Table2.2, Preferential Tariff Rate Fertilizer Import Quotas for 2010 35

2.2.4 Fertilizer Import & Export Tax Policy for 2010 35

Figure2.14CDuty Rate for Chinafs Exported FertilizerC2009-2010 36

2.2.5 Policy Direction on Fertilizer Market in 2010 36

2.2.5.1 Policy on Industry and Investment 36

2.2.5.2 Taxation and Subsidy Policies 37

2.2.5.3 Policy on Reserve during Offseason 37

2.2.5.4 Fertilizer Import & Export Policy in 2010 38

2.2.5.5 Fertilizer Price Policy 38

2.2.5.6 Environmental Protection Policy 38

2.2.6 Forecast on Fertilizer Production in 2010 39

2.2.7 Forecast on Fertilizer Import and Export in 2010 39

2.2.8 Forecast on Fertilizer Consumption in 2010 40

CHAPTER THREE: REVIEW & OUTLOOK OF NITROGEN FERTILIZER MARKET IN 2009-2010 41

3.1 Review of Nitrogen fertilizer Market in 2009 41

3.1.1 Analysis of prosperity Degree of Nitrogenous Fertilizer in 2009 41

Table3.1, Economic Indicators of Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry in 2009 41

Figure3.1, Profit margin of Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry 42

3.1.2 Cost and Profit of Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry in 2009 42

Table3.2, Production Cost of Urea 43

3.1.3 Analysis of Nitrogenous Fertilizer Market in 2009 43

3.1.4 Output of Nitrogenous Fertilizer in 2009 43

Figure3.2, Monthly Nitrogen Fertilizer Production 44

Figure3.3, Proportion of Nitrogen Fertilizer Production, 2009 44

Figure3.4, Proportion of Nitrogen Fertilizer Production, 2008 45

3.1.5 Import and Export of Nitrogenous Fertilizer in 2009 45

Figure3.5, Monthly Urea Exports 45

3.1.6 Consumption of Nitrogenous Fertilizer in 2009 46

3.1.7 Review of Urea Market in 2009 46

3.1.7.1 Analysis of Urea Market in 2009 46

3.7.1.2 Urea Production in 2009 46

Figure3.6, Monthly Urea Production 47

3.1.7.3 Urea Consumption in 2009 47

3.1.7.4 Urea Price Trend in 2009 47

Figure3.7, China Urea Monthly Retail Prices 48

3.1.8 ABC Market in 2009 48

3.1.8.1 ABC Production in 2009 48

3.1.8.2 ABC Consumption in 2009 48

3.1.8.3 ABC Price T

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