subject: Horse Race Handicapping - Sometimes Book Learning Is A Bad Thing [print this page] Author: Gerald W Cohail Author: Gerald W Cohail "You can't learn how to handicap from a book." I am not sure where I found that quote, but it certainly is true. So many people, including me, learned most, if not all, of what they know about horse racing from handicapping books. That is unfortunate because so much of what has been written in the most popular handicapping books is worthless when it comes to making money at the racetrack. The authors of most of the handicapping books written over the past three or four decades have, in their own ways, found ways to pick winners. Yet, no matter which author you relate to, his method of handicapping will often put you on the same over bet favorites that any modern computer handicapping program will find in less than 10 seconds. I remember reading Andy Beyer's Picking Winners in the 1970's. He suggested that adjusted speed figures based on par times would lead you to winning horses. Well, they did. And, they still do. However, in the 1970's they put you on the occasional long shot, which gave you an edge over your fellow bettors. Today, that rarely happens. You might win several races each day, but so many people were influenced by Beyer's book that Beyer Speed figures calculated by a computer eventually became a number included in the past performance records found in The Daily Racing Form. That means the information is available to everyone and you no longer have an edge playing Beyer numbers. They are over bet. If you play the horse with the highest Beyer number in every race, you will lose money long-term. William Quirin was another popular author. I will not go into detail here, but the use of what he called Speed Points will lead you to horses that consistently demonstrate early speed. The higher the number, the more likely the horse is to take the lead in a race. They became so popular they are used in numerous handicapping systems and software programs. But, once again, so many people use them that the horses that have the highest Quirin Speed Points are often over bet. I could continue listing the many books that influenced my early betting practices. There were many by such authors as Steve Davidowitz, Tom Ainslie, Charles Carroll, Dick Mitchell, Tom Brohamer. But listing them all would require writing a two or three part article and that would likely bore you to death. The point I want to make is this: It took me a number of years to unlearn what I learned from reading those handicapping books, but thankfully I did. I finally learned that the reason I can make as much money as I do from betting on horse races is the fact that the betting public as a whole has no clue about what they are doing. They have been taught to look for "the winner" in every race when they should be looking for the best bet in every race. Believe me, the two are mutually exclusive. Making money at the racetrack means you have to find winners the general public has ignored for the most part. That means you cannot bet the favorite or other heavily bet horses. They do not offer value for your money. You must find horses that have a chance to win at odds that are in your favor. --30-- About the Author:
Gerald W. Cohail started handicapping horse races as a young teenager in the early 1960s. After roughly 50 years, he has learned two certainties about making money from wagering on horse races. 1.) Never bet on a favorite no matter how good that favorite looks on paper. 2.) You cannot expect to make a profit from wagering on horse races if you bet on every race.
To sign up for Gerald's Free horse racing handicapping course and claim your Free copy of the 1962 classic "Bet The Horses And Win" visit his blog at ProRacingPicks.com.
